Daily NCAA Tournament Projections: An Introduction
Find out the chances for each Mountain West team to make the NCAA Tournament
Contact/Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire
There is a new way to earn an NCAA Tournament bid
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The NCAA Tournament selection committee has made some changes to how they select teams. Gone are the days of only using RPI only to determine fine team is worthy.
Road games are being weighed more and a quality road win expands to the 75th RPI team. This helps out the Mountain West, and other non-power leagues, which struggle to get quality opponents at home.
Also, a change is now allowing advanced stats to be used officially like KenPom ESPN BPI and others in addition to the outdated RPI which can be massaged to help a team with creative scheduling.
These changes weigh road and home games differently and four RPI groups.
| RPI Group 1: Home (1-30) | Neutral (1-50) | Away (1-75) |
| RPI Group 2: Home (31-75) | Neutral (51-100) | Away (76-135) |
| RPI Group 3: Home (76-160 | Neutral (101-200) | Away (136-240) |
| RPI Group 4: Home (161-351) | Neutral (201-351) | Away (241-351) |
Instead of hearing top 25 or 50 wins (we are guilty of this sine it’s new) the new term will be Group 1, 2, 3 or 4 RPI wins.
Nearly every day we will we look at and update the Mountain West and its NCAA tournament chances using the new RPI and other advanced metrics.
The order below is alphabetically.
| Team | Record (D1-only) | RPI | RPI 1 | RPI 2 | RPI 3 | RPI 4 | SOS | KenPom | BPI | Sagarin |
| Air Force | 4-5 | 312 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 338 | 260 | 262 | 271 |
| Boise State | 8-1 | 43 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 4-0 | 149 | 61 | 50 | 32 |
| Colorado State | 4-6 | 143 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 3-0 | 50 | 173 | 205 | 193 |
| Fresno State | 7-2 | 66 | 0-1 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 184 | 64 | 58 | 53 |
| Nevada | 8-2 | 14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 6-0 | 1-0 | 33 | 36 | 18 | 20 |
| New Mexico | 2-7 | 219 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 1-0 | 47 | 172 | 134 | 203 |
| San Diego State | 6-3 | 79 | 0-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 3-1 | 99 | 62 | 72 | 24 |
| San Jose State | 1-7 | 342 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-5 | 1-1 | 288 | 306 | 305 | 318 |
| UNLV | 8-2 | 100 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-0 | 221 | 74 | 74 | 44 |
| Utah State | 5-6 | 189 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3-0 | 173 | 138 | 130 | 123 |
| Wyoming | 603 | 50 | 0-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 3-1 | 69 | 101 | 140 | 102 |