Basic strategy provides mathematically proven guidelines on the optimal playing decision for every possible hand in blackjack. However, there are certain situations where altering plays from basic strategy can give you a slight mathematical advantage against the house. As cards are dealt from the shoe and seen by the players at the table, the composition of the remaining cards changes. When certain cards dominate the unseen portion of the deck, it impacts the probabilities for the hands that will be dealt. Savvy players pay close attention and make calculated strategy adjustments when the deck texture favors the player.
When Basic Strategy Failures Occur
Basic strategy was derived through computer simulations of millions of blackjack hands. It tells you the best decision to make based on your hand and the dealer’s upcard, in order to minimize the house edge. However, because it was formulated based on a normal, balanced distribution of cards in the shoe, there are times when basic strategy will fail you.
As an example, basic strategy says you should always split a pair of 8s. But near the end of a single-deck or double-deck game, if you have been seeing a preponderance of high cards dealt at the table, you face unfavorable odds by splitting your 8s. The abundance of high cards remaining in the deck makes you more likely to get busted hands when you split, compared to normal deck conditions.
Therefore, careful card counters at SpinBit Casino will often deviate from basic strategy by not splitting 8s when they determine through card tracking that few small cards are left. This contrarian play converts a normally bad hand into a 12 or higher, which has favorable odds to win against a dealer showing a 5 or 6.
Key Situations Where Deviations Apply
There are three main situations where deviations from basic strategy are warranted when the deck is rich in certain cards:
- When many 10-value cards remain:
- Don’t split 8s
- Don’t double soft 18
- Consider surrendering good hands vs dealer 10 upcard, e.g. 12 vs 10, 13 vs 10
- When many aces remain:
- Take insurance with more hands. Apply the illustrious 18 rule: Always ensure 18 when the count justifies
- Double down less with soft hands
- Hit soft 18 more liberally
- When few small cards remain:
- Double down less with hard hands, like 10 & 11
- Hit hard 12-16 more vs dealer 2-6
The key is recognizing when too many big cards or too few small cards are left to deal. Carefully observe cards that were previously played and determine when high and low card concentrations warrant strategy shifts.
Balanced Count vs Unbalanced Count Systems
Card counting systems track the number of high and low cards that have appeared through the course of a blackjack shoe. But counting systems fall into two categories that determine how strategy alterations are applied:
- Balanced count systems: Simple Hi-Lo count; each card valued at +1, -1 or 0
- Only track the net sum of counted cards. True count = Running count/ Decks remaining
- True count correlates to overall concentration of high cards
- Unbalanced count systems: Zen count, Omega II count; different card values
- Track more dimensions. Running counts for different card groups
- Additional information on distribution of key cards
The majority of strategy deviations derive from the true count in a balanced counting system like Hi-Lo. As the true count rises, more high cards remain in the deck, favoring players. When the true count is +5 or more, considered a “rich” deck, indexed strategy charts indicate the optimal deviations.
However, unbalanced counts also track surpluses of key cards like aces and tens. Certain hands may be played differently than what a high true count alone would dictate. Custom strategy indexes fine-tune your plays based on the exact composition of cards remaining.
Other Considerations Before Deviating
While counting cards provides great insight into how to enhance basic strategy, card counters should also be aware of:
- Number of players at the table: The more players, the faster the deck gets depleted of high and low cards. You’ll have less opportunity to capitalize on counts.
- Casino game rules and penetrations: The more decks used, earlier reshuffles, or restrictions like no mid-shoe entry all dilute the card counting advantage.
- Bet spread required: Are table betting limits sufficient to justify your risk from strategy deviations?
- Counting system flaws: Balanced counts only track net card concentrations. Be wary of over-emphasizing ten-card counts.
Just because a count system suggests conditions are favorable does not guarantee profitability from strategy deviations. Be selective in the situations where you stray from basic strategy. Consistently applying sound judgements, in addition to mathematical guidance, is key to long term card counting success.