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No, Nevada Is Not Going To Be A Three Seed
Find out the chances for each Mountain West team to make the NCAA Tournament.
Contact/Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire
Even as at 32-3 Nevada will be a lower seed.
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The NCAA Tournament selection committee has made some changes to how they select teams. Gone are the days of only using RPI only to determine which teams are worthy. (Read our intro here)
These changes weigh road and home games differently and four RPI groups, plus KenPom, RPI and BPI are metrics, too.
| RPI Group 1: Home (1-30) | Neutral (1-50) | Away (1-75) |
| RPI Group 2: Home (31-75) | Neutral (51-100) | Away (76-135) |
| RPI Group 3: Home (76-160 | Neutral (101-200) | Away (136-240) |
| RPI Group 4: Home (161-351) | Neutral (201-351) | Away (241-351) |
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The Nevada Wolf Pack are in a good position to make it to the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. The team is predicted to finish 15-3 and will be favored in nearly every game the rest of the way.
The Wolf Pack are sitting at seven seed in the latest Bracket Matrix compilation of brackets and the RPI is sitting at 12 but that is not all what is considered when looking at where teams are seeded.
The Wolf Pack currently have three games against Group 1 teams and is 1-2. That might change when looking at predictive RPI from Warren Nolan which gives Nevada six regular season games in Group 1 with both Boise State games, Rhode Island, TCU, Texas Tech and the big surprise is road game against Fresno State. The predicted record is 3-3 with that third loss being a one-point road loss to Boise State.
However, some Nevada fans are getting excited that if the Wolf Pack win out, which is not out of the realm of possibility. That would give them a 32-3 record by sweeping the Mountain West tournament. Some are projecting the Wolf Pack as a three seed but that seems highly unlikely. Look no further than last year when Wichita State had a 30-4 record heading into the NCAA Tournament but earned a 10 seed.
TeamRankings.com projects seeds for tournament teams and give the Wolf Pack a 13.7 percent chance to get a three seed, but it does not count in if they go 32-3 but the overall projections. Earning a fifth seed is the most likely scenario at this point in time.
The order below is alphabetically. (You may need to scroll to the right to see all the rankings)
| Team | Record (D1-only) | RPI | Group 1 | Group 2 | Group 3 | Group 4 | SOS | KenPom | BPI | Sagarin |
| Air Force | 6-10 | 236 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 4-3 | 190 | 252 | 296 | 234 |
| Boise State | 15-4 | 33 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 4-0 | 7-0 | 115 | 48 | 47 | 41 |
| Colorado State | 9-11 | 159 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 6-2 | 98 | 189 | 235 | 183 |
| Fresno State | 10-6 | 143 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 7-0 | 177 | 83 | 91 | 106 |
| Nevada | 18-3 | 12 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 9-1 | 4-0 | 51 | 16 | 26 | 19 |
| New Mexico | 9-11 | 151 | 0-6 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 5-2 | 67 | 123 | 126 | 178 |
| San Diego State | 10-7 | 121 | 0-3 | 2-0 | 3-3 | 5-1 | 123 | 57 | 55 | 29 |
| San Jose State | 2-15 | 306 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-8 | 2-3 | 148 | 312 | 314 | 311 |
| UNLV | 14-6 | 172 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 5-1 | 8-1 | 282 | 88 | 78 | 74 |
| Utah State | 9-11 | 147 | 0-1 | 1-5 | 2-3 | 6-0 | 118 | 157 | 152 | 123 |
| Wyoming | 11-7 | 74 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 5-3 | 3-1 | 69 | 110 | 151 | 89 |
