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Is The Mountain West In Danger Of Being A One-Bid League?
Find out the chances for each Mountain West team to make the NCAA Tournament.
Contact/Follow @JeremyMauss & @MWCwire
How bad did Nevada’s loss hurt the Mountain West?
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The NCAA Tournament selection committee has made some changes to how they select teams. Gone are the days of only using RPI only to determine which teams are worthy. (Read our intro here)
These changes weigh road and home games differently and four RPI groups, plus KenPom, RPI and BPI are metrics, too.
| RPI Group 1: Home (1-30) | Neutral (1-50) | Away (1-75) |
| RPI Group 2: Home (31-75) | Neutral (51-100) | Away (76-135) |
| RPI Group 3: Home (76-160 | Neutral (101-200) | Away (136-240) |
| RPI Group 4: Home (161-351) | Neutral (201-351) | Away (241-351) |
The Nevada Wolf Pack lost (not in an upset) in double overtime to Wyoming in Laramie for its first conference loss of the year and very likely will drop from the AP rankings in one week, again.
The loss will put a ding in the Wolf Pack’s at-large chances but how much? Losing at Wyoming is a Group 1 loss so it is not a bad loss by any means but the Mountain West has not been given the benefit of the doubt as the league has been a one-bid entry to March Madness in each of the past few years.
This does not really change the Wolf Pack’s at-large chances as Team Rankings still gives Nevada a 62.6 percent chances to earn an at-large bid as of Jan. 26. That number actually increased from the week prior and before the Wyoming loss in which the Wolf Pack were given a 60.9 percent chance to earn an at-large bid.
The onus is on Boise State which Team Rankings gives them a 45.8 percent chance of securing an at-large bid.
Really, nothing changes much with the Mountain West and its at-large hopes.
The order below is alphabetically. (You may need to scroll to the right to see all the rankings)
| Team | Record (D1-only) | RPI | Group 1 | Group 2 | Group 3 | Group 4 | SOS | KenPom | BPI | Sagarin |
| Air Force | 6-11 | 244 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 4-3 | 203 | 258 | 255 | 236 |
| Boise State | 16-4 | 41 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 4-0 | 9-0 | 110 | 49 | 47 | 39 |
| Colorado State | 9-12 | 164 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-4 | 6-1 | 91 | 192 | 235 | 186 |
| Fresno State | 13-6 | 108 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 5-3 | 7-0 | 143 | 82 | 91 | 92 |
| Nevada | 18-4 | 13 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 9-1 | 5-0 | 53 | 18 | 26 | 24 |
| New Mexico | 9-11 | 151 | 0-6 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 5-2 | 67 | 120 | 126 | 122 |
| San Diego State | 11-7 | 118 | 0-3 | 2-0 | 3-3 | 5-1 | 123 | 55 | 55 | 51 |
| San Jose State | 2-16 | 292 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-6 | 2-4 | 148 | 311 | 314 | 319 |
| UNLV | 14-6 | 160 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 4-1 | 9-1 | 237 | 86 | 78 | 79 |
| Utah State | 10-11 | 173 | 0-4 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 6-1 | 126 | 148 | 152 | 146 |
| Wyoming | 12-7 | 56 | 1-3 | 3-0 | 5-2 | 3-2 | 51 | 104 | 151 | 78 |
