SP+ Predict Air Force’s 2023 Football Record
Who do the Falcons fare against their opponents?
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What do advance numbers say?
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The Air Force Falcons are replacing a lot of talent this year with 59% coming back which ranks 86th in FBS. Their offense returns less than half of their production at 47% which is 113th.
The defense brings back quite a bit more with 70% which is 41st in the nation, and that looks to be the strength of their team this year.
The Falcons usually do not fare well in advance numbers, and specifically SP+. Those advanced numbers rely on recruiting and recent history. Air Force does a lot better in recent production but their recruiting classes are usually near the bottom of the Mountain West.
The 2023 recruiting class ranked fifth in the Mountain West but that is skewed with their 45 commits. The average per recruiting rating via 247 Sports is 11th of 12.
So, to see the Falcons at 77th overall is a bit surprising, but also encouraging with these numbers.
How does Air Force compare to their opponents this year? Falcon fans have to be encouraged about how SP+ ranks their opponents. anAir Force is projected to be better than 11 of their 12 opponents, and for fun that could mean that the Falcons will finish the season 11-1. The only team that has a higher rating is Boise State and they are at No. 68.
Saturday, September 2 – vs. Robert Morris (N/A: W)
Saturday, September 9 – at Sam Houston State (124: W)
Friday, September 15 – vs. Utah State (118: W)
Friday, September 22 – at San Jose State (103: W)
Saturday, September 30 – vs. San Diego State (80: W)
Saturday, October 14 – vs. Wyoming (101: W)
Saturday, October 21 – at Navy (97: W)
Saturday, October 28 – at Colorado State (119: W)
Saturday, November 4 – vs. Army (in Denver) (87: W)
Saturday, November 11 – at Hawaii (131: W)
Saturday, November 18 – vs. UNLV (108: W)
Friday, November 24 – at Boise State (68: L)
Just because the Falcons have a better rating does not mean they are going to win, obviously. The closer the numbers means less of a chance to win, but they face seven teams 100 or worse and an FCS team.
Even with the loss of production, the Falcons have a chance for a really good season.
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