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San Diego State vs. New Mexico: Three Keys to a Lobos Win
The Lobos hope to score a big Mountain West win over the Aztecs. Here’s our preview of how UNM can secure an upset over SDSU.
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Can the Lobos turn things around?
WEEK 10: San Diego State Aztecs (6-2, 3-1 Mountain West) vs. New Mexico Lobos (3-5, 1-3 Mountain West)
WHEN: Saturday, November 3 — 8:15 PM MT/7:15 PM PT
WHERE: Dreamstyle Stadium; Albuquerque, New Mexico (39,422)
TV: ESPNU
STREAM: Get a free one-week trial of FuboTV.
RADIO: The New Mexico broadcast can be found in and around Albuquerque on KKOB, 770 AM, and elsewhere throughout the state on the Lobos Radio Network, so check local listings.
SERIES RECORD: San Diego State the series 26-15. In the last meeting on November 24, 2017, the Aztecs defeated New Mexico, 34-10, in San Diego.
WEBSITES: GoLobos.com, the official New Mexico athletics website | GoAztecs.com, the official Utah State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): New Mexico | San Diego State
FOOTBALL STUDY HALL STAT PROFILES: link
The New Mexico Lobos absorbed a big loss last weekend at Utah State, but the toughest part of their 2018 schedule isn’t over just yet.
UNM hosts San Diego State this Saturday, just as it appears the Aztecs are getting healthy and newly motivated. After suffering a close loss last week against Nevada, SDSU is sure to bring its A-game in an attempt to remain in the hunt for the West division title but, with more off-field troubles plaguing UNM this week, it is anyone’s guess as to how the Lobos will answer.
Here’s what New Mexico can do to beat San Diego State.
Three Keys to a New Mexico Win
What will the offense get from Colton Gerhart?
After three straight weeks of offensive regression, head coach Bob Davie is turning to his third quarterback of the season in an effort to save their chance at bowl eligibility. Gerhart, who went 8-of-12 for 110 yards in mop-up duty against Utah State, will replace Sheriron Jones and throw the run-pass mix into question.
When he got some extended playing time back in 2017, Gerhart averaged seven yards per carry after adjusting for sacks and managed an Opportunity Rate (percentage of run plays that gain more than five yards) of 51.7%. Of course, that was when Tyrone Owens averaged well over 5.5 YPC himself; the running game simply hasn’t been the same in 2018.
Against a defense that has been one of the nation’s best at defending the run (26th in defensive Stuff Rate, 4th in defensive Opportunity Rate and 6th in defensive S&P+ against the run), it’s a switch that could work against the Lobos if they can’t get on track early.
Get pressure on the quarterback.
The Lobos pass rush has been MIA most of the time recently, collecting just four sacks in the last three games. San Diego State hasn’t been great about protecting its quarterbacks, though, as Nevada continually flushed Ryan Agnew last Saturday night, so there’s a dire need to get to whoever ends up under center for the Aztecs.
That could be Agnew, who is still listed atop the depth chart, or it could be Christian Chapman. Regardless, they need someone other than Rhashaun Epting, who still has 3.5 more sacks than anyone else despite collecting zero in the last three weeks, to step up.
Hope that you can replace Evahelotu Tohi.
New Mexico is one of the teams in the Mountain West that could least afford to lose key players on defense, but they’ll be without middle linebacker Tohi, who is suspended indefinitely after putting a teammate in the hospital.
That’s not ideal against an Aztecs offense that might get its best playmaker, running back Juwan Washington, back in action this weekend. SDSU, who currently rank just 71st in Rushing S&P+, haven’t had the same kind of ground game as in years past, but sophomore Brandon Shook, listed as Tohi’s backup on the depth chart, will be under a lot of pressure to replace the team’s leading tackler.
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