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Air Force vs. San Jose State: How can the Falcons defeat the Spartans?

Air Force vs. San Jose State: How can the Falcons defeat the Spartans?

The Air Force Falcons and San Jose State Spartans kick off Conference Play in Week 2

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Troy Calhoun and Ken Niumatalolo get re-acquainted!

WEEK 2: Air Force Falcons 1-0 vs. San Jose State Spartans 1-0

WHEN: Saturday, September 7th, 5:00 p.m. MT

WHERE: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, CO)

TV: CBS Sports Network- Chris Lewis, play by play
Taylor McHargue, analyst

SERIES HISTORY: Air Force leads the series vs. San Jose State with 5 wins- 2 losses

GAME NOTES (PDF): Air Force | San Jose State

The Mountain West schedulers wasted no time getting Air Force and San Jose State into Conference clashes. It’s only the second week of the season, and for second time in as many years, the Falcons and Spartans will meet on the gridiron.

These two schools don’t play as often as one might think, despite being in the same Conference. This was because of their placement in separate divisions of the Conference. Well, the Mountain West has eliminated divisions starting in 2024, so perhaps we will see Air Force battling the Spartans more often in the future.

There is a lot of intrigue coming into this matchup. Neither club looked particularly dominant against FCS opponents last week, while they both are breaking in new players at a lot of key positions. The most notable storyline of this week two matchup has to be the new Spartan head-coach, that is an old familiar foe to the Falcons. Welcome back to Colorado Springs, coach Ken Niumatalolo. Coach Ken is the all-time wins leader at the U.S. Naval Academy, where he was the head coach from 2008 to 2022.

 

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Troy Calhoun and Ken Niumatalolo coached teams have met 16 times, and they’ve split the wins going 8-8 each. Come Sunday morning, someone is going to have a winning record against their rival. This is not a rivalry in the sense that there is bitterness or ill-will between the coaches, it is quite the opposite. These are two coaches who share a lot in common with the contributions and success they have had at two of the proud Military Academies.

Things are going to be very different in 2024 when the two meet. Coach Niumatalolo is no longer leading a team hampered by the recruiting limitations that exist while at a Military Academy, along with a laundry list of other challenges that are unique to these institutions. Speaking of unique, the offensive identity that has long been at the core of the Military Academies, the option, is no longer the philosophy of Niumatalolo’s squad.

If their week one output is any indicator, coach Ken’s done a complete 180 with his approach to scoring points. The Spartans threw the ball for over 300 yards, while rushing for just over 60 against Sacramento State. These numbers would have been reversed back in his days at Navy.

It wasn’t all roses in the Spartan’s season debut with their new coach though. They fumbled the ball four times, losing two of them, while also struggling to grind out even two yards per carry on the ground. Quite the contrast indeed from Niumatalolo’s days at Annapolis.

Air Force on the other hand didn’t exactly put on an offensive display in their opening matchup against Merrimack College. Struggling to put 21 points on the board, even with a ton of new faces, their offensive performance was quite underwhelming. A completely overhauled offensive line and backfield never really did find their stride. Some of that may be attributed to the fact their gameplan stayed quite vanilla, while the Falcon defense was suffocating and never appeared to be at risk of surrendering points until the final drive, when the game was decided.

If Air Force wants to wake up on Sunday 1-0 in Conference play, they are going to need a better performance from their offense and special teams on Saturday.

KEYS TO A FALCON VICTORY

KEEP NASH IN CHECK

In last years victory over San Jose State, Nick Nash had just five catches for less than 30 yards. Tight End Dominick Mazotti actually let the team with 60 yards in that matchup. Thankfully, Kairee Robinson is no longer carrying the rock, as he gutted the defense for almost 12 yards per carry.

But back to Nash. The converted quarterback has fully settled in as a go-to target for the Spartans. Last week he torched the defense for 170 receiving yards, while hauling in two touchdowns. Oh, and he still has an arm, because he threw a 26 yard touchdown strike in their game against Sacramento State as well.

The Air Force cornerbacks are a strength with their depth and experience. They cannot allow Nash to cut them up down the field. Camby Goff at safety should be a key factor in this matchup.

 

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TAKEAWAYS

Against Merrimack College, the defense was stifling and opportunistic. The level of competition will certainly be ratcheted up this week. Recent history suggests the Falcons will feature a very stingy defense though. That same defense that forced multiple fumbles and led the team to a +3 turnover margin last week will be major factor in the result of this game.

The Spartans showed a willingness to put the ball on the ground last week, and the Falcon defenders will need to be facilitators of aptness to share. In case your wondering, the San Jose State defense forced three turnovers of their own.

PLAY COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL

Throughout history, legendary Spartan armies were known for their phalanx in battle. The successful deployment of this tactic was predicated discipline and interdependence between soldiers.

Well, the Air Force football team isn’t all that different. When the Falcons are at their best, the offense wears the opposition out, the defense minimizes points by possession and the special teams won’t cost you games. Neither needs to be spectacular if the three are steady.

PREDICTION

It’s fair to say that neither of these teams performed at their peak last week against FCS opposition. Was that a bit of conservative planning in anticipation of the week 2 matchup that has a Conference win at stake? Maybe. Both teams are looking for better performances, and I would be very surprised if they didn’t deliver just that on the field.

We mentioned the coaching familiarity earlier. But the fact that both teams are still breaking in new quarterbacks will be an interesting storyline to play out. Though from a productivity standpoint, Emmit Brown, the Wazzu transfer didn’t have a bad stat line, throwing for just under 300 yards with three touchdowns.

John Busha on the other hand didn’t have to do a whole lot as the game was never really in doubt. But it will be interesting to see if he can increase the speed with which he is able to process the reads that are so critical in this offense.

A really interesting point brought up by Air Force Sports Blogger ‘Ricks Falcon Review’ was the pitch depth from the quarterback to running back. If the offense is going to hit another gear, they are going to need to work to their pitch at certain points of the game, and get the ball to Kade Frew, Aiden Calvert and Cade Harris. For those plays to be effective, you need that sweet poetry in motion, option pitch that leads the back and doesn’t slow him down.

 

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I do believe there was a lot of gamesmanship with the way last weeks game was called. I’m not sure that is entirely the reason the team was only able to muster 21 points despite multiple added possessions. But that is not what we’ve come to expect from an Air Force offense, recognizing all of the personnel turnover. There is a program and culture that this team implores, and it truly does allow for them to overcome a lot of the circumstances associated with changes of the roster.

It is that program, and the history of results to be able to deliver the longer the coaching staff gets to mold the clay. I also think about the game against Sam Houston State last year which was similarly sluggish to their game against Merrimack. The next week, the Falcons came out blazing against a Utah State Aggies team that had given them fits the two years prior.

Do not dismiss the week to week progress this very established coaching staff will have. Look for more consistent gains on offense fueled by the ability generate more chunk plays. This is a Spartan defense that surrendered 177 yards on the ground last week.

The defense will have their hands full with the Spartan passing game if their not assignment ready, but there’s not a lot to suggest the defense will be anything but game for the task.

Look for coach Lobo to have the Diesels playing at a higher level, and the run game to take a big step forward behind them. This is going to help get to the aspect of Busha’s game that we’ve heard a lot about, the timely pass to gouge a defense.

Expect a very good four quarter matchup on Saturday. But there are more reasons for me to expect Air Force to win than San Jose State. Maybe not many, but a little more.

Air Force 24 – San Jose State 21

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