The Mountain West doesn’t always scream “must-bet” in early August, but this year feels different. Maybe it’s the cluster of quietly competitive teams, maybe it’s the new-look schedules, or maybe—just maybe—bettors are starting to take notice of how chaotic this conference can get when the lights get cold in November.
Sports Hub : Premium Service Plays NCAA football Week 1
Let’s just say it now: Boise State is still the measuring stick. But they’re not running away with anything this year. The Broncos are +180 to win the conference on most books, which feels… generous? They’ve got a veteran QB, sure, and the usual aggressive front seven, but road games at Air Force and Fresno State could trip them up. One user, @PickWatchDave, posted last week: “Boise’s still the brand, but not the best team in the MWC. That defense was gassed late in games last season. Not buying the hype.”
Relate Topic : A Step-by-Step Guide to Transition from Bettor to Bookie
Which brings us to Air Force. Everyone loves a service academy once bowl eligibility starts getting mentioned. The Falcons won ten games last year, and they bring back what might be the best secondary in the Group of Five. They don’t ask their offense to do too much—which is good, because it won’t. But bettors like the clarity. A few sharps on X were noting early Under bets on Air Force totals, especially in back-to-back October games at San Diego State and Colorado State.
Speaking of CSU, there’s a little buzz around Fort Collins for once. They finished strong last season, and Clay Millen finally has some protection this year. Not saying they’re contenders, but they could be the annoying team that spoils someone’s title hopes late in the year. Their Week 3 game vs Utah State (a team that bettors love to fade right now) will say a lot.
Now let’s talk Fresno State, because someone has to. They’re lurking around +500 to win the MWC, and honestly, that’s not a bad longshot bet. The defense isn’t flashy, but it’s solid, and Mikey Keene at QB might be one of the most efficient passers in the league. Problem is, their schedule is brutal down the stretch: Air Force, Boise, and San Jose State in consecutive weeks. One bettor put it perfectly: “Fresno’s the kind of team that’ll go 9-3 and somehow get ignored until they’re ruining someone’s New Year’s Six dreams.”
Then there’s UNLV, who might be the most polarizing team in the Mountain West. They’ve got talent—especially at WR—but some bettors just don’t trust the coaching staff in high-leverage spots. “Too flashy, not enough grit,” as NCAA football Experts at CBS Sports Picks put it. But they open at home against Nevada and New Mexico, so early momentum could swing things.
As for bowl projections? The general consensus among the sharp community is that six teams are in serious contention: Boise, Air Force, Fresno, UNLV, San Jose State, and maybe—maybe—Colorado State. If the Rams get to seven wins, expect social media to break into full “How did they pull this off?” mode.
Bowl Game Predictions from the Betting Crowd
While Boise State remains the favorite, the Mountain West Conference is known for its unpredictability, and several teams have the potential to make a run at the title
Not every conference race is about playoff implications. Sometimes the real value is buried in these mid-tier battles—teams trying to break through, reputations on the line, coaching shifts, and trap games galore. That’s what makes the 2025 Mountain West so compelling from a betting standpoint. There’s room for chaos.
Boise State (-130) is on nearly everyone’s list. Barring a collapse, they’re not just bowl-bound—they’re being whispered about as a New Year’s Six dark horse. Why they could win:
- Returning quarterback Madsen Maddux leads a potent offense.
- Strong defense with key players like linebacker Andrew Simpson and safety A’Marion McCoy
UNLV (+375) under Mullen feels different. The win total sits around 6.5, and a lot of bettors are hitting the over. A bowl game seems like a strong bet. Why they could win:
- New head coach Dan Mullen brings SEC experience and a fresh approach.
- Transfer quarterback Anthony Colandrea adds depth to the offense
Colorado State (+1500) has believers. With that improved O-line and a generous schedule, 6-8 wins is reasonable. A bowl is right there for the taking. Why they could win:
- Improved offensive line provides better protection and run support.
- Continuity in coaching staff under Jay Norvell fosters team development
San Jose State (+800) could sneak in with a few timely wins, especially if the defense levels up. One upset could swing it. Why they could win:
- Head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s system showed promise in his first year.
- Favorable schedule, avoiding games against Boise State and UNLV
Air Force (+1800) is where things split. You’ve got one group saying “lock for six wins,” and another questioning the inconsistency. Depends who you ask—and when. Why they could win:
- Experience gained from a young 2024 team could translate into success.
- Unique triple-option offense poses challenges for opponents.
There’s no perfect preseason read on this conference. Everyone’s got holes, and the travel makes things weird. But that’s what gives Mountain West games betting value: it’s rarely clean, and never boring.
And that Week 5 game—Air Force vs. Fresno? Already circled. Could be the one that flips the whole thing upside down.