As the 2025 NCAA Tournament selection approaches, the San Diego State basketball team finds itself in a precarious but promising position for an at-large bid.
Season Overview
The Aztecs finished the regular season with a 21–8 overall record and a 14–6 record in the Mountain West Conference, securing the No. 4 seed in the MWC Tournament. However, their early quarterfinal exit against Boise State (52–62) has cast some doubt over their tournament seeding.
Despite this setback, SDSU’s strong strength of schedule and consistent performance against quality opponents make them a viable candidate for an at-large bid. The Aztecs have key wins against ranked teams and solid metrics in the NCAA’s NET rankings, which are critical for selection.
Bracketology and Projections
As of March 12, SDSU was projected as a No. 10 seed in various bracketology models, meaning they were on relatively safe ground before the MWC Tournament loss. The big question is whether this defeat will push them closer to the bubble or if their resume remains strong enough to secure a spot.
The selection committee values:
- Quality wins: SDSU has victories against tournament-bound teams.
- Strength of schedule: The Mountain West was highly competitive this season.
- NET ranking and metrics: If SDSU’s ranking remains favorable, they should still be in.
Selection Sunday Outlook
With Selection Sunday on March 16, SDSU fans will be eagerly awaiting their tournament fate. While an at-large bid still seems likely, their seeding may drop slightly due to the early exit in the conference tournament. A First Four game in Dayton is a possibility if they end up near the cut line.
If the Aztecs do make the tournament, their defensive prowess and experience in March Madness could make them a dangerous lower seed. Head coach Brian Dutcher’s squad has a history of making deep runs, and they’ll look to channel that energy once again.
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