2024 Mountain West Tournament Quarterfinal Odds

Who will advance to the semifinals

One double-digit favorite

Thursday’s Mountain West tournament has a lot riding on the line with at-large bids.

As much as we want a six-bid Mountain West, that seems less likely, however, we can dream of a nearly 10% representation in the Mountain West.

Five is a near lock but New Mexico and UNLV have a shot to burst some other teams bubble by making it to the semifinals. The Lobos are in a better shape among the bracketologists out there compared to UNLV.

Fresno State is the only team that must win the conference tournament to go to the NCAA Tournament.

As for today’s game, TeamRankings.com puts together the odds for the quarterfinal games and advancing to the title game, plus the champion with eight teams left.

But first, the odds on each game.

All quarterfinal games are all on CBS Sports Network or stream it on FuboTV with a free trial.

(1) Utah State vs. (8) Fresno State, noon PT/1 p.m. MT — Aggies favored by 12.5
(5) San Diego State at (4) UNLV, 2:30 p.m. PT/3:30 p.m. MT — Aztecs favored by 4.5
(2) Nevada vs. (7) Colorado State, 6 p.m. PT/7 p.m. MT — Wolf Pack favored by 2.5
(3) Boise State vs. (6) New Mexico 8:30 p.m. PT/9:30 p.m. MT — Boise State favored by 1.5

Toss Up Tournament

Team Rankings says basically any team outside of Fresno State has about a 10% chance to win the Mountain West’s automatic NCAA Tournament bid.

The Bulldogs are giving a Lloyd Christmas type chance as he said in Dumb and Dumber with a 0.09% chance to win the conference tournament.

As the chart shows it has the Aztecs who are the defending conference champions as the slight favorite to win the whole thing. This is all despite them being the No. 5 seed and did not beat any top-seven teams away from home.

Playing away from Viejas is a legit concern for San Diego State, but they have talent and they did go to the national title game last year for the first time ever for the school.

What hurts San Diego State’s chances is they are playing UNLV, who is hosting the tournament and is played on the Rebels home court at the Thomas & Mack Center. If you have been following along, the Rebels are a top-seven seed which the Aztecs recently loss to on this very court.

San Diego State is just getting over a coin flip chance to move on to the semifinals, and partly is due to playing a team they lost to and this is technically a road game.

The Aztec’s advantage is less than a percentage point to win the whole thing ahead of Utah State who won the regular season and also ios given the best chance to move onto the semifinals.

Even Colorado State at a hair under 10% chance to win the conference tournament would not be far-fetched.

This is all to say that no one team is an overwhelming favorite to make it to the title game or win the whole thing, so sit back and watch these games because Mountain West Madness should produce some exciting games and likely an upset or two.

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