The Mountain West is positioning itself for another multi-bid NCAA Tournament season, with Utah State leading the way and New Mexico and San Diego State giving the league a realistic shot at three or more bids if league play breaks right.
The Mountain West currently grades out as a top-6 conference nationally in the NET and strength-of-schedule metrics, sitting just behind the power leagues like the Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, SEC and Big East. The league’s nonconference winning percentage is roughly .640, which keeps the overall conference profile in at-large range and gives its contenders a solid foundation.
Depth is again a calling card, with eight or more teams sitting inside the NET top 100, a threshold that helps generate valuable Quad 1 and 2 opportunities in league play. That depth cuts both ways: contenders can build résumés, but bad losses in the bottom third of the league can quickly drag down bubble teams.
Current standings and pecking order
San Diego State and Utah State have separated at the top of the conference standings, both opening 6–0 or 7–0 in league play while posting strong overall records in the mid-teens in wins. New Mexico and Nevada are close behind with double-digit overall wins and winning conference records, while programs like Grand Canyon, UNLV, Boise State and Fresno State sit in the crowded middle.
Advanced metrics generally slot Utah State as the league’s top team, with a NET around the mid-teens and a KenPom ranking in the low 20s, while Boise State and New Mexico hover in or near the top 50. San Diego State, a recent Final Four program, has climbed into the top 70 after a big week, with trend lines suggesting more upside if the Aztecs continue to stack wins.
Bracketology snapshot
Recent bracketology runs place Utah State safely in the field, typically on the No. 6 or No. 7 seed line thanks to a 15–1 type record, strong NET, and quality nonconference profile. New Mexico usually appears in the 10–11 seed range, sometimes projected for the First Four, reflecting a good but still fragile résumé.
San Diego State has hovered on the wrong side of the bubble—“Next Four Out” in some projections—despite an unbeaten league start, mainly because of a more modest early résumé and middling NET around 50–70. Nevada is viewed as the fourth-best team statistically but sits off the national bracket radar for now, with bracket matrix aggregates showing the Wolf Pack on essentially zero projected brackets.
ESPN’s latest Bracketology update projects three Mountain West teams in the NCAA Tournament field.
Utah State Aggies
Utah State earns a No. 8 seed in the West Region, set to face No. 9 Saint Mary’s in the first round at San Diego State’s Viejas Arena. The Aggies sit comfortably in the field with a strong NET ranking around No. 15 and an undefeated conference record.
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico appears in the First Four, matched against USC, with the winner taking a No. 10 seed in the Midwest Region to play No. 7 North Carolina in Oklahoma City. They hold a No. 11 seed projection as one of the Last Four In, bolstered by a 14-3 overall mark and NET around No. 42.
San Diego State Aztecs
San Diego State has re-entered the Field of 64 as a No. 11 seed or better in recent updates, moving off the bubble after a strong league start. Earlier projections listed them as Next Four Out, but recent wins pushed them into at-large contention with a NET near No. 50.
Path to multiple bids
For the Mountain West to land three or more NCAA bids, a few things must happen. First, Utah State has to avoid a late collapse, staying in protected-seed territory or at least comfortably in the middle of the bracket as a solid at-large.
Second, New Mexico and San Diego State must stockpile Quad 1 and 2 wins in league play while avoiding damaging losses to the bottom quarter of the conference; splitting their head-to-head meetings and beating Utah State at least once would push both firmly onto the right side of the bubble.
Finally, a dark horse like Nevada, Grand Canyon, or Boise State would need a hot February to crash the conversation, likely by finishing top three in the league and reaching the conference tournament final with a NET in the top 50–60.
Given the conference profile and number of quality teams, the most realistic outcome in current bracketology is two secure bids with a strong chance at a third if the middle of the league performs in high-leverage games down the stretch.