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Injuries are an inevitable part of the NFL season that can completely change the fantasy football and betting landscape from week to week. Heading into Week 11, several impact players are questionable or confirmed out, which will have major implications on fantasy lineups and wagering.
For fantasy managers, injuries to players like Justin Jefferson, Tyler Lockett, and Alexander Mattison could create lineup headaches. Jefferson is arguably fantasy’s top receiver, so managers will scramble for replacements if he sits. Lockett’s potential absence would also decrease Seattle’s passing production and limit options for owners.
If Mattison misses time, it opens up an opportunity for a new starting running back that could pay dividends if played. Constant injury updates leading up to game time will sway tough start/sit decisions.
On the betting side, the status of key injuries causes shifts in spreads and over/under at sportsbooks. For example, if dynamic QB Justin Fields returns this week as expected, some highly rated bookmakers like BetVictor may move the point spread and totals for Chicago’s matchup against Detroit.
The same could happen if players like Gibson or Brown are confirmed out. Their absence impacts teams’ offense and defense. So, bookmakers adjust the odds accordingly. Bettors must account for these lineup changes and resulting number movements. Keeping up with injury impacts allows bettors to find value in identifying line changes.
Here are 8 key NFL injury updates you need to know that will affect fantasy football and betting decisions.
Justin Jefferson
The Vikings wide receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday after being limited in practice all week with a toe injury. Jefferson leads the NFL with 867 receiving yards and is the WR3 in fantasy points per game this season. If active, he has an extremely favorable matchup against the Cowboys’ 27th-ranked pass defense.
But if Jefferson sits, it would be a big downgrade for Kirk Cousins and boost Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn’s fantasy outlook. For bettors, Jefferson’s status could impact the over/under and spread.
Dameon Pierce
Texans rookie running back Dameon Pierce has been ruled out for Sunday’s game against the Commanders with an ankle injury. Pierce had been a workhorse back for Houston, averaging nearly 20 touches per game. With Pierce sidelined, backup Rex Burkhead will take over lead-back duties.
Burkhead hasn’t topped 50 rushing yards in a game this season but will be a viable fantasy flex play and could see goal-line carries. The Commanders run defense ranks near the bottom of the league, so Burkhead is an intriguing cheap DFS tournament play.
Khalil Herbert
Bears running back Khalil Herbert is expected to return this week after missing time with an ankle injury. Herbert practiced in full all week. Before getting hurt, he handled a 65% snap share and 16.5 carries per game as Chicago’s lead runner. With David Montgomery still out, Herbert should retake that role. He’ll be a strong RB2 play against a Falcons defense, allowing the most fantasy PPG to RBs.
Tyler Lockett
Seahawks top wideout Tyler Lockett is questionable for Sunday’s matchup against the Buccaneers. Lockett was held out of practice all week with a hamstring injury. Rookie Dareke Young could be thrust into a starting role if Lockett sits.
Young has just three targets on the year but has a big-play upside. Geno Smith spreads the ball around, so DK Metcalf, Marquise Goodwin, and Will Dissly could also benefit if Lockett misses time.
Matthew Stafford
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is poised to return this week after missing time. His return is big for the Los Angeles offense, especially receivers Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson. In the three full games Stafford played this year, Kupp averaged nine catches for 122 yards and 18 fantasy points per game. The Saints have a stingy pass defense, but Kupp remains a must-start with Stafford back.
Noah Brown
With Cowboys receiver Noah Brown ruled out with an ankle injury, Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz could see more targets. Brown had emerged recently, scoring 14+ fantasy points in back-to-back games before his injury. Look for Gallup and Schultz specifically to benefit in plus matchups against the Vikings’ vulnerable defense.
Alexander Mattison
Vikings backup RB Alexander Mattison is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. If he can’t get clearance from the protocol, third-stringer Ty Chandler will step into a starting role. Chandler is a high-upside flex option against the Cowboys’ shaky run defense. He brings big-play ability as both a runner and receiver.
Justin Fields
Finally, Bears quarterback Justin Fields is set to return from a shoulder injury this week. His return boosts the fantasy outlooks of Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and Equanimeous St. Brown against a Lions’ defense ranked 31st in both points and yards allowed. Fields’ dangerous rushing ability also makes him a top-5 fantasy QB play again.