2024 Mountain West Tournament Semifinals: #5 SDSU vs. #1 Utah State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction

Is Jaeden greater than Great? LeDee and Osobor square off on Friday.

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The #5-seed Aztecs face the #1-seed Aggies. The winner plays for the Mountain West Tournament Championship.

WHERE: Thomas & Mack Arena- Las Vegas, NV (Capacity 18,776)

WATCH: CBSSN

RADIO: San Diego Sports 760 / SiriusXM App ch. 968

SERIES RECORD:  San Diego State and Utah State meet for the 30th time Friday evening. The Aztecs hold a 19-10 series advantage.

LAST MEETING:  The Aggies defeated the Aztecs 68-63 in Utah on February 20th, 2024.

WEBSITES:  GoAztecs.com, the official San Diego State athletics website; UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website.

ODDS: SDSU +2.5

OVER/UNDER: 143.5

Las Vegas, NV – The Thomas & Mack Arena is rockin’ and the Mountain West quarterfinals have not disappointed one bit.

News of Justin Hutson vacating the Fresno State Bulldogs head coaching job emerged. “I coached my last game here at Fresno State,” Hutson said. “I’ve talked with the administration. It’s the right time. It’s been six years, A lot of fun.”

Good luck, Justin.

The Utah State Aggies and SDSU Aztecs advance to face off in the semifinals. The winners of Nevada-Colorado State and New Mexico-Boise State will also advance to the semis.

The Bulldogs nearly defeated Utah State, as Coach Hutson battled for his job, forcing overtime before the Aggies regained the handle and closed out the match. The Aggies had an amazing regular conference season, but watching the Bulldogs hang in there until overtime begs the question of whether Utah State is tournament ready.

In the same vein, watching the Aztecs blow a solid lead over UNLV forcing overtime was unnerving. SDSU in action was like watching Tiger Woods grind out a tournament win when he can’t drive the golf ball straight.  The Aztec win was not pretty, but they scraped together enough results to come out ahead in the end, after finding a silver lining in an incredible 1.6-second half-time buzzer beating steal-then-three-pointer by Darrion Trammell that cut an 8-point deficit to five. Dominant rebounding and next-level defense insured SDSU against repetitious sins at the arc and charity stripe. They escaped with one-possession win.

The Aztecs and Aggies went 1-1 in conference play. Neutral court advantage will go to SDSU, who calls the Thomas & Mack “Viejas East.” A large contingent of Aztecs fans will be in attendance, along with Aggies fans.

Neither team needs the tournament win to punch their ticket to the Big Dance, but both will play fiercely for that tournament banner.

What will happen? Let’s take a closer look.

Why The Aggies Will Win

The Aggies only had one bad stretch all year. Utah State went 2-3 during a five-game run in February but since then it’s six straight wins. Those victories came versus San Diego State, Fresno State, Air Force, San Jose State, New Mexico and Fresno State again.

In the match against Fresno State on Thursday, the Aggies had a big scare. Utah State had to force overtime after a 36-35 first-half deficit, before taking the 87-75 win.

Great Osobor had a monstrous performance with 29 points and 17 rebounds for a double-double. Sounds familiar . . . 

Osobor was named Player of the Year in the MWC, and made First Team All Conference after leading Utah State to a regular season title, averaging 17.6 PPG and 9.0 RPG, as a 6’8, 250-pound junior.

The Fresno game was not his highest scoring game of the season, given he reached 30 points three times this year, but the 17 boards was his season high. Darius Brown II was also a First Team selection, averaging 12.4 PPG and 6.4 APG as a 6’2 senior point guard. Ian Martinez is another scorer on the wing, averaging 13.3 PPG as a 6’3 senior guard.

The Aggies have had an amazing season. Tournament play calls for different dynamics, different tempo, and new strategy, so we’ll see how they do.

Why The Aztecs Will Win

The Aztecs are the best high-stakes basketball team in the Mountain West.

Against UNLV Thursday, San Diego State scored 22 points in the first half, 43 in the second and nine in overtime to defeat the host university 74-71. San Diego State played a true road game, and collected the W.

The Aztecs were led by a juggernaut performance from Jaedon LeDee with 34 points and 16 rebounds in the win. Great numbers . . .

LeDee made First Team All Conference in the MWC this season with averages of 20.5 PPG and 8.2 RPG as a 6’9, 240 pound senior forward. His 34 point game tied his season high, and 16 rebounds passed his previous season high. Lamont Butler made the All-Defensive team, he is a 6’2 senior guard getting 9.0 PPG and 1.6 steals per game on the perimeter. Their only other scorer in double figures is Reese Waters, he is a 6’6 junior guard getting 10.5 PPG and is also the top shooter on the team with 45 made threes on the year.

What Will Happen

The Aztecs overpowered UNLV on Thursday, overcoming every complexity they encountered.  And they did so while shooting poorly, and making just 61.5 percent from the charity stripe. Their 50-31 rebounding edge made the difference, and they found a way to win.

Utah State almost lost to Fresno State. The Aggies shot just 7-of-25 (28 percent) from 3-point range and 26-of-36 (72.2 percent), and that is surprising given Fresno State’s struggles this past season.

The Aztecs are unlocking tournament mode. They have the ability to find another gear. They’re going get things under control in this rematch. The Aztecs will maintain a lead for much of the second half, before winning by two possessions this time to advance to the Championship on Saturday.

Final Score: SDSU 78, Utah State 73