Is A 16-Team College Football Playoff Field Coming?
An expanded playoff before the 12-team field is set?
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This would be huge for the G5
CBS Sports Dennis Dodd wrote an article recently talking about the possibility of the College Football Playoff expanding to 16 before it even gets to 12 teams in two seasons.
This is not just some pie-in-the-sky theory being tossed out there. When the four-person playoff committee was meeting to come up with dozens of ideas for playoff expansion, one was a 16-team model.
Former Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson was on that working group and felt 16 could be a great number.
“I think [16 teams is] the most natural,” said Thompson. “I’m not advocating for it, but … I can’t imagine a scenario that it’s at least not discussed [before 2026].”
The “most natural” part is likely due to the ease of a bracket which is simple to follow with four rounds of games to crown a champion. A 16-team tournament will allow for any team that is good enough to win a title.
There will be teams that never have a shot at a title even in that sense but being involved in a tournament can be exciting. No one felt St. Peters would have won a game, let alone, make it to the Elite Eight.
That is the exciting part of an even more expanded College Football Playoff. Anything can happen. No one felt TCU would be this good this year and they proved it all year long and then upset Michigan in the semifinals.
Plus, a 16-team model would likely include at least two Group of Five teams, and that is why commissioners from those conferences like this model. Even more than the 12-team setup.
“I think 16 is the number,” MAC commissioner Jon Steinbrecher said. “Four was better than two. Twelve is better than four. Sixteen is the number in my mind.”
“That’s where everyone sees the evolution going,” American commissioner Mike Aresco said. “I can see that happening down the road.”
Even Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes likes more teams to have a chance.
“I think 12 is going to be great,” Dykes said. “… I’ve always believed that the cream rises, and the more opportunities that schools outside of the traditional brands get, the more those schools can become traditional brands.”
Twelve is a great start and it includes the six-highest-rated conference champions and zero automatic bids for all the Power 5 leagues.
This current 12-team field could be an audition of sort to allow for TV executives to see how much this larger playoff could net them in television money. A 16-team field will get more fanbases involved and keep the sport from contracting as it is currently headed with bloated power conferences.
Odds are that a lot of people will be watching the 12-team field and see what upsets could be on the horizon. Seeing a Group of Five team advance to the round of eight would be exciting and not out of the possibility, even if they are a 12 seed.
Plus, who knows if a team can make a run to win a couple of games and garner the attention of the sports fans. People would tune into that. There are teams over the years that had legitimate cases outside the power structure that could have made a run.
Look back at the 2004 Utah and Boise State teams that were undefeated, 2008 Utah thumped Alabama, and 2010 had three great non-power teams in Boise State, Nevada, and TCU.
Look at the Kellen Moore-led Boise State teams that were really good or Chris Ault’s early 2010s teams at TCU. Those teams may not have won a national title but they could have made a run for a few games.
There is no talk of a new format in the hypothetical 16-team setup. My preference is all conference champs and then six at-large bids. That probably won’t fly but maybe do top seven conference champions to include a pair of Group of Five teams no matter.
This model is based on if champions from every conference get in from the 2022 season.
No. 1. Georgia (SEC champion) vs. No. 16 Toledo (MAC champion)
No. 8 Utah (Pac-12 champion) vs. No. 9 Kansas State (Big 12 champion)
No. 5 Alabama (At-Large) vs. No. 12 Tulane (AAC champion)
No. 4 Ohio State (At-Large) vs. No. 13 Troy (Sun Belt champion)
No. 3 TCU (At-Large) vs. No. 14 UTSA (Conference USA champion)
No. 6 Tennessee (At-Large) vs. No. 11 Penn State (At-Large)
No. 7 Clemson (ACC champion) vs. No. 10 USC (At-Large)
No. 2 Michigan (Big Ten champion) vs. No. 15 Fresno State (MWC champion)
Based on the 2022 final playoff rankings and using the new setup for the 12-team field which gives the top-six highest-ranked conference champions an auto-bid. This will not include the bye format that is in the 12-team field which gives the highest conference champions earning a bye,
Here is what a 16-team playoff would have worked.
No. 1. Georgia (SEC champion) vs. No. 16 Tulane (AAC champion)
No. 8 Utah (Pac-12 champion) vs. No. 9 Kansas State (Big 12 champion)
No. 5 Alabama (At-Large) vs. No. 12 Washington (At-Large)
No. 4 Ohio State (At-Large) vs. No. 13 Florida State (At-Large)
No. 3 TCU (At-Large) vs. No. 14 Oregon State (At-Large)
No. 6 Tennessee (At-Large) vs. No. 11 Penn State (At-Large)
No. 7 Clemson (ACC champion) vs. No. 10 USC (At-Large)
No. 2 Michigan (Big Ten champion) vs. No. 15 Oregon (At-Large)
These are pretty good, right?
