Football Betting Strategies: Expectation vs Reality

Football Betting Strategies: Expectation vs Reality

Football Betting Strategies: Expectation vs Reality


There are a lot of memes flying around the internet about expectation vs reality. These are generally funny things where people don’t exactly get what was advertised. On a more serious note, the whole expectation vs reality thing is worth taking note of. 

The main takeaway is that it is best to keep a level head about things. Do not let your personal biases of expectation lead you to make unrealistic bets.

It doesn’t matter what area of football betting it is, the basic point is to keep a check on reality. That’s from collecting World Cup betting offers to expecting to beat the bookmaker with every single wager that you place.

Betting Strategies

Who doesn’t love a good betting strategy? Most punters do have one, even if they aren’t aware of it. The only bets that a punter may make are home wins in the Championship at odds of at least 10/11. That’s a strategy, a simple one, but it’s a betting plan.

Betting strategies can be anything from playing spread betting to late in-play draw selections on football matches, to getting deep into formulated plans like the Martingale System. Strategies however are not foolproof. 

It’s great to have a betting plan going into a major tournament like the FIFA World Cup for example. Punters should study the statistics, form and team news and even betting tips to build a strategy. 

But the disadvantage of that strategy is expecting it to turn up profit every single time.

Realistic Sports Betting Strategy

Not to stifle the fun out of sports betting, but tempering expectations is a good approach. It can still be a great challenge, piecing together statistics for a betting strategy that works for you, even as a hobby.

There’s enjoyment to be garnered from that, and there is always room for growth. A betting strategy can be tweaked. It can morph into new ones that explore other markets and there is a sense of pride in piecing one together.

What it’s not going to do is win every single time. Returns from sports betting are just too speculative to let expectations rule the day. You can’t guarantee a result, as major underdog successes like Greece winning Euro 2004 or Leicester winning the 2015/16 Premier League title highlight.

On both of those occasions, massive odds were defied. Statistical margins were blown out of the water, and the unpredictable ruled the day. They are things that betting strategies can never account for.

Sports Betting – It’s Not a Career

Another of the big expectations that new punters may fall into the trap of, is expecting sports betting to be a career. That’s just not based on any kind of reality, because it would command massive amounts of money just to turn over the kind of profit that would be needed to make a living. 

You will see news of big acca wins pushed on social media by betting sites. These are great marketing tools for them because everyone dreams of a big win. They do happen, but very rarely like the punter who collected a 29,000/1 parlay on a remarkable NFL bet that returned half a million dollars from a $20 free bet credit. These are not everyday occurrences. 

It doesn’t matter what your level of betting is at, whether it’s a tenner once a weekend or £10 grand a day, you are going to suffer losses. A betting strategy can blind you to that. Treating sports betting as a hobby is a far more sensible and realistic approach.

Not Set in Stone

A strategy is based on cold hard facts. They are statistics and numbers from events that have already happened. They don’t cover all the bases in trying to put together a winning formula for regular sports betting.

The stats may be telling you that England have won 70% of their matches in the current World Cup by a two-goal margin. But it doesn’t take into account the situation surrounding the next match which may be the World Cup Final. Against Brazil.

That would be a game of the highest pressure, a world away from England hammering minnows in the group stage. So you have to be a little more flexible with your betting plans than just sticking to the numbers.

Team news, pundit insights and tracking the trends of markets may suddenly start to point you away from what your normal strategy is suggesting. Listen to the reality of a situation.


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