Week 10 Mountain West Football Title Race
Who is going to win the divisions
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One team is very, very close
Week 10 of Mountain West football is here and the division races are getting closer and closer to being decided. The Mountain Division is basically a two-team race between Boise State and Wyoming, with Utah State being a distant third.
No team from the Mountain can clinch in Week 10.
— Boise State and Wyoming can win the division if they both win out.
— Utah State can win the division if they win out, Boise State has two losses (including a loss to the Aggies), and Wyoming end up with three conference losses.
— Wyoming can also win the division if there is a three-way tie with each team having two losses. The Cowboys would own wins over both Utah State and Boise State in that scenario.
— Colorado State might have a shot if chaos ensues and they finish with two losses and if Boise State and Utah State have three losses.
In the West, four teams have a shot with Fresno State in the best position, along with UNLV, San Diego State, and San Jose State. This side of the division is a bit more complicated.
— Fresno State wins the West if they win out, they have wins over San Diego State and San Jose State
— San Jose State can win the division by going 7-1 and a Fresno State loss.
— UNLV and San Diego State play in Week 10 and the loser is likely eliminated. With either at two losses.
— There can be a three-way tie between San Jose State, Fresno State, and then UNLV or San Diego State. All would have two losses. This would mean the tiebreaker goes head-to-head among the three and go from there.
Fresno State has Wyoming on the schedule which is difficult and could throw things into a wrench for the Bulldogs if their third loss goes to the Cowboys since three-way ties go among those West Division teams.
— Record right now if there three-way tie:
Fresno State: San Diego State (W), San Jose State (W), UNLV (TBD)
San Jose State: Fresno State (L), UNLV (W) San Diego State (TBD)
UNLV: San Jose State (L), San Diego State (TBD), Fresno State (TBD)
San Diego State: Fresno State (L), UNLV (TBD), San Jose State (TBD)
That is a long way of saying that a three-way tie among those team still has a good amount of football left. San Diego State and UNLV today will give a clear picture for next week.
Here are the odds for how each team can win the division and conference from ESPN’s SP+ and Football Power Index (in that order)
Mountain odds: Boise State 87% and 91.2%, Wyoming 12% and 8.7%, Utah State 0.6% and 0.1%
West odds: Fresno State 66% and 62.4%, San Jose State 28% and 32.7%, UNLV 4% and 2.9%, San Diego State 2%, and 2%
Conference odds: Boise State 58%, Fresno State 25%, San Jose State 10%, Wyoming 6%, UNLV 0.9%, San Diego State 0.7%
Biggest remaining games: Fresno State at UNLV (Nov. 11), SJSU at SDSU (Nov. 12), Boise State at Wyoming (Nov. 19), Utah State at Boise State (Nov. 25) and Wyoming at Fresno State (Nov. 25)