New Mexico vs. Utah State: Keys To An Aggies Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Aggies look to keep their bowl hopes alive at home against the Lobos. Here’s how to watch and what Utah State can do to win.
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A must-win against a beatable opponent.
WEEK 10: New Mexico Lobos (2-6, 0-4 Mountain West) vs. Utah State Aggies (3-5, 2-2 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, November 5 — 1:30 PM MT/12:30 PM PT
WHERE: Maverik Stadium; Logan, UT
WEATHER: Morning rain and snow, afternoon rain, high of 43 degrees
TV: CBS Sports Network
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBSSN, by following this link.
RADIO: The New Mexico radio broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Lobo Radio Network, including flagship 770 AM (KKOB) in Albuquerque. The Utah State broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Aggie Sports Network, which includes flagship 1280 AM/97.5 FM (KZNS) out of Salt Lake City.
SERIES RECORD: Utah State leads the all-time series, 14-1. In the last meeting on November 26, 2021, the Aggies defeated the Lobos, 35-10, in Albuquerque.
LAST WEEK: New Mexico and Utah State were both on bye in Week 9.
WEBSITES: GoLobos.com, the official New Mexico athletics website | UtahStateAggies.com, the official Utah State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): New Mexico | Utah State
ODDS: Utah State -15
SP+ PROJECTION: Utah State by 10.2
FEI PROJECTION: Utah State by 9.7
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Utah State 79.5% win probability (22.24-10.87)
BACK 🏠 | vs New Mexico
🏟 Maverik Stadium
⌚️ Saturday | 1:30 PM MT
📺 @CBSSportsNetNOTES ➡️ https://t.co/kc5LvdVv1I
TICKETS ➡️ https://t.co/yZpZbTLR32#AggiesAllTheWay pic.twitter.com/liNNsC9Ud0— USU Football (@USUFootball) November 1, 2022
The Utah State Aggies are fresh off of a bye and must win three of four November games to reach bowl eligibility, beginning at home this Saturday against the New Mexico Lobos.
A change at offensive coordinator hasn’t seemed to change things much for Danny Gonzales’s Lobos, as they managed just nine points against both New Mexico State and Fresno State before their own bye week last Saturday. The Aggies, meanwhile, seem set to get quarterback Cooper Legas back from injury, but here’s what the home team can do to snuff out any kind of upset bid.
Three Keys to a utah State Victory
1. Get back to creating chunk plays through the air.
While Bishop Davenport looked game to try and keep the Aggies offense on track, it was clear that Utah State could not stretch the field the way they had with Legas under center: Against Wyoming, Davenport’s longest throw went for just 16 yards. By contrast, Cooper Legas has eight plays of 20 or more yards in 83 attempts.
His return should mean big things for the trio of Brian Cobbs, Terrell Vaughn, and Justin McGriff, who will match up against a solid New Mexico secondary that is going through a bit of shuffling itself. No team in the country has seen more players start at least one game than the Lobos, with 47 players altogether including true freshmen Zach Morris and Bryson Taylor at cornerback and A.J. Haulcy and Jer’Marius Lewis at safety.
2. Get pressure on the quarterback.
After coming on in relief of Miles Kendrick against New Mexico State, Justin Holaday got his first career start against Fresno State two weeks ago and had a miserable time of things, completing 8-of-16 passes for a meager 37 yards while taking three sacks. Pass protection has been a glaring weakness for the Lobos all season, as their 14% sack rate allowed is dead last among all FBS teams.
This, then, should be an opportunity for defensive coordinator Ephraim Banda’s athletes to have a field day, but that’s not necessarily a given. The Aggies have done most of their damage on passing downs (2nd-and-8 or more and 3rd/4th-and-5 or more) with a defensive sack rate of 9.3% in those situations, but standard downs have been a tougher assignment since that figure drops to 1.6% (130th in FBS). Making the Lobos pay for dropping back to pass on early downs will go a long way toward holding serve at home.
3. Let Stephen Kotsanlee keep doing his thing.
The third-year punter is having his best season to date, improving his yards per punt average by about two full yards from 2021 (42.47 to 44.23) while putting 17 of his 43 kicks inside the 20-yard line. Even if the offense gets off to a slow start, that level of performance could come in handy against a New Mexico that has struggled to move the ball consistently all year, ranking 130th in available yards percentage earned per drive despite starting field position — the 30.4-yard line on average, according to Parker Fleming — that’s a little better than you’d expect.
Prediction
Getting Legas back in action should be a huge boon for the Aggies, which means there is zero excuse to let the Lobos hang around on Saturday afternoon. It may not be the weekend’s most exciting game, but Utah State fans should feel very good about their chances to get one step closer to bowling.
Utah State 21, New Mexico 6
