Does Boise State Have A Path To A New Year’s Six Game?
Broncos aren’t ranked but that could change.
Currently a long shot.
With the release of the College Football Playoff rankings Tuesday, the conversation also starts about the NY6 qualifier and Boise State’s ability to take the spot. As one of six teams from the non-Power 5 conferences to receive votes in the polls, there is a way for the Broncos to make it in.
G5 teams in the the first College Football Playoff
These two play each other in a few weeks.
— Mountain West Wire (@MWCwire) November 1, 2022
Here is a breakdown of the leaders for the spot and who they have coming up:
(19) Tulane, AAC (@ Tulsa, vs. UCF, vs. SMU, @ Cincinnati)
(25) UCF, AAC (@ Memphis, @ Tulane, vs Navy, @ USF)
Cincinnati, AAC (vs. Navy, vs. ECU, @ Tem, vs. Tulane)
Coastal Carolina, Sunbelt (vs. App St, vs. So Miss, @UVA, @JMU)
Troy, Sunbelt (@ UL, vs. Army, vs. ULM, @ ArSt)
Boise State, Mountain West (vs. BYU, @ Nev, @ Wyo, vs. USU)
At 6-2, the Broncos have been gaining momentum over their past four victories. The week one loss at Oregon State isn’t the worst loss on the resume of these six teams, but the loss at UTEP might be. The only team to lose to a team worse record is Coastal Carolina to Old Dominion. Boise State is favored in each of their remaining games, with this week’s game against BYU being the closest match-up according to the ESPN Match-up Predictor at 65.5% for the Broncos.
If the Broncos can keep to just the two losses, they may not have the schedule strength to move up, with BYU, Wyoming, and a Mountain West championship game being the toughest left on the schedule. Boise State will have to rely on a lot of help from other teams to get the spot.
It’s clear that, as of now, the voters favor the AAC over the other conferences, and Tulane has the early lead at 7-1. UCF and Cincinnati are 6-2, with UCF winning the head-to-head match-up between them last week. With Tulane having to play UCF and Cincinnati yet and being the underdog to both, according to ESPN’s Match-up Predictor, there is a good chance that they will chew through each other, but it may not be enough to get the Broncos to move up to the highest spot. The best-case scenario would be for Tulane to beat UCF and Cincinnati and lose the AAC championship game.
Coastal Carolina (7-1) and Troy (6-2) of the Sunbelt are also in the mix. Coastal Carolina is favored only against Southern Miss on their remaining schedule and is a heavy underdog against James Madison. On the other hand, Troy has a relatively easy schedule to end the season, being favored in all four games of their remaining schedule, with their closest match-up being this weekend against Louisiana. Like the Mountain West, the Sunbelt doesn’t have a lot of strength, and neither CCU nor Troy have any notable wins to help push them above the rest.
The Broncos can make it in if there is chaos in the AAC. Without that, Boise State doesn’t have a signature win, has the weakest loss, and doesn’t have the strength in its remaining schedule to move up enough to take the spot. However, there is still a chance.