Colorado State vs Boise State: Rams Keys, Odds, Predicition
The Rams look to stay in the mix for a MW Championship berth
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Can the Rams get their first win against Boise State?
WEEK 9: Colorado State Rams (2-5, 2-1 MW) vs. Boise State Broncos (5-2, 4-0 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, October 29th — 5:00 p.m. MST / 4:00 p.m. PST
WHERE: Albertsons Stadium; Boise, ID (36,387)
WEATHER: Partly Cloudy, high of 64 degrees
TV: Fox Sports 1
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes FS1, by following this link.
RADIO: K99-FM 99.1 / ESPN 1600 AM (Colorado)
SERIES RECORD: This will be the 12th matchup between these two schools. Boise State leads 11-0 in the series.
LAST MEETING: Boise State won 28-19 last season in Fort Collins
WEBSITES: CSURams.com, the official Colorado State athletics website | BroncoSports.com, the official Boise State athletics website
GAME NOTES (PDF): Colorado State | Boise State
ODDS: Boise State -25.5
SP+ PROJECTION: Boise State by 24.3
FEI PROJECTION: Boise State by 16.5
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Boise State 93.26% win probability (21.44-0.80)
Colorado State is coming off of their second victory of the year; a 17-13 win over Hawaii thanks to a late touchdown from Avery Morrow and game sealing interception by Ayden Hector. Now their attention turns towards Boise State. In 11 previous attempts, Colorado State has never beaten the Broncos.
The Broncos are helmed by Andy Avalos, a former Boise State linebacker, who has led them to a 12-7 record in his season and a half in charge. The 2022 season got off to a rough start going 2-2 and mainstay quarterback Hank Bachmeier elected to transfer.
Avalos made the decision to fire offensive coordinator Tim Plough. Dirk Koetter, who started the year as an analyst, stepped in for the rest of the season. Taylen Green has taken the place of Bachmeier and his ability to run the ball has given the Broncos another demension to their offense.
𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁’𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗖𝗢𝗔𝗖𝗛! 🔥
— Colorado State Rams 🐏 (@CSURams) October 23, 2022
Now onto some keys to victory for the Rams.
Three Keys to a colorado state victory
1. Contain Taylen Green.
The Broncos are averaging a nearly 50/50 split in terms of yardage per game, with 162.9 passing and 175.4 rushing yards per game. A big reason for that is Taylen Green. Green brings a dual-threat prescence that you must account for; opening holes for other threats including George Holani and Ashton Jeanty.
The Rams know they need to play smart against Green. Mohamed Kamara and C.J. Onyechi need to play contain instead of rushing straight up. The interior defensive line needs to get their head up and prepare to shuck the lineman in front to tackle. And the linebackers know they need to keep an eye on the backfield.
2. Take the opportunities given to you.
Boise State is ranked third in the nation in yards allowed per game at 241.1 yards given up per game. Norvell notes the Broncos play a sort of bend, don’t break style of defense. So the Rams need to hit those underneath passes and use the running game to establish themselves.
Trying to lull this Boise team to sleep on defense and then taking a shot over the top will be key. If you can sustain drives with the small stuff, the deep stuff with Tory Horton or others will eventually show itself. The Rams just need to remain patient and let the game come to them.
For our State. ⛰️#Stalwart x #RamGrit 🐏 pic.twitter.com/MvoGpYMVJW
— Colorado State Football (@CSUFootball) October 25, 2022
3. Continue to Grow.
Due to various injuries, transfers, and leavers the Rams have had to start a dozen freshman and six others who would not normally see the field except for mop-up time. But those players have taken on the challenge and stepped up to show the improvement this team has made.
George Miki-Han was one of those players who wouldn’t normally see the field. He might miss this week and walk-on freshman Keegan Hamilton would be called upon to take his place. Louis Brown and Justus Ross-Simmons have stepped up at receiver. And Avery Morrow has become that bellcow running back. Whatever happens, it’s just next man up and the growth will continue.
what will happen
Colorado State has never beaten Boise State. And it probably won’t change this week, unless something absurd happens. The Rams are continuing to grow and this game will be closer than expected. The Broncos are the team to beat in the Mountain West, but CSU will give them a shot.
Final Score: Boise State 31, Colorado State 20