Wyoming vs. New Mexico: Keys To A Cowboys Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
The Cowboys look to snap a two-game losing streak to the Lobos. Here’s how to watch and what to watch for.
A must-win for the conference title chase.
WEEK 6: Wyoming Cowboys (3-3, 1-1 Mountain West) vs. New Mexico Lobos (2-3, 0-2 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, October 8 — 5:00 PM MT/4:00 PM PT
WHERE: University Stadium; Albuquerque, NM
WEATHER: 60% chance of rain, high of 64 degrees
TV: CBS Sports Network
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes CBSSN, by following this link.
RADIO: The Wyoming broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Cowboy Radio Network, including flagship 1240 AM (KFBC) in Cheyenne. The New Mexico radio broadcast can be found on the affiliates of the Lobo Radio Network, including flagship 770 AM (KKOB) in Albuquerque.
SERIES RECORD: Wyoming leads the all-time series, 38-36. In the last meeting on October 23, 2021, the Lobos defeated the Cowboys, 14-3, in Laramie.
LAST WEEK: Wyoming lost at home to San Jose State, 33-16, while New Mexico lost on the road against UNLV, 31-20.
ODDS: Wyoming -3.5
SP+ PROJECTION: Wyoming by 2.8
FEI PROJECTION: Wyoming by 10.3
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Wyoming 61.92% win probability (16.41-12.23)
Cowboys to Make First Conference Road Trip of Season to New Mexico
— Wyoming Cowboy Football (@wyo_football) October 4, 2022
After absorbing their first conference loss of the season last weekend, the Wyoming Cowboys won’t have much time to sit around and feel sorry for themselves with a road trip to the Land of Enchantment on deck, where they will face the New Mexico Lobos.
Craig Bohl’s Pokes want to stay in the mix for the Mountain division title, but the Lobos have had their number for the last couple of years, winning two straight in this series. Here’s what Wyoming can do to turn the corner and come away with a big road win.
Three Keys to a Wyoming Victory
1. As Andrew Peasley goes, so goes the Wyoming offense.
There’s little doubt that the Cowboys have played at their best when their quarterback Peasley is firing on all cylinders, but there are a couple of trends that he’ll need to get past for Wyoming to have a chance in this game.
In the three games that the Cowboys have won so far in 2022, Peasley has completed 68.7% of his throws for an average of 6.8 yards per attempt, with three touchdowns and an interception rate of 1.2%. In the team’s three losses, however, he’s only completed 39.1% of his throws at 4.3 YPA, with three touchdowns and an interception rate of 2.9%. He’s also underperformed on the road, though New Mexico may not be as hostile as Illinois or BYU, so that bears watching.
2. Keep the ball under wraps.
As you might suspect, Rocky Long’s New Mexico defense has been adept at providing itself opportunities to come away with the ball to this point in the campaign. Not only do the Lobos lead the Mountain West with 13 total takeaways, they also pace the conference with eight forced fumbles and 30 passes defended in their first five games.
The good news on this front is that Wyoming hasn’t been all that careless with the football themselves, with only five giveaways in six contests, but that was true in each of their last two losses to New Mexico, too, and the Cowboys finished -2 in turnover margin last year and -1 against the Lobos back in 2020. Avoiding the killer mistake and forcing the UNM offense to work for everything will be a big factor.
3. Make life miserable for Miles Kendrick.
It’s no secret that the Lobos offense has often scuffled throughout 2022 thus far, ranking 123rd in yards per play, 125th in points per drive, 130th in available yards percentage earned per drive, all filtered for garbage time possessions. More crucially for this game, however, is that New Mexico has also allowed an overall sack rate of 12.3%, which ranks 129th among FBS teams.
That porous offensive line could mean big things for a Wyoming pass rush which has flashed major potential but has been mostly quiet over the last couple of games. The Cowboys’ own defensive sack rate is 5.9%, good enough to rank 64th overall, but they have had just four sacks in the last three games, so it’ll be incumbent upon the young defensive line to pick things up in order to avoid any upset bid.
Wyoming has been a difficult team to predict from week to week because the passing offense hasn’t always been reliable and the defense has been pushed around a little more than you realize. The Lobos finally showed signs of life on offense themselves last week and probably have, in Long’s defense, the best unit on the field, so at a minimum they should be on upset alert.
All it might take is one or two things to go wrong for New Mexico to steal another win in this series, though, and they have the defensive chops to make that happen.
New Mexico 17, Wyoming 14