Boise State vs. Oregon State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
Can the Broncos get a road win?
P5 win on the horizon?
WEEK 1: Boise State Broncos at Oregon State Beavers
WHEN: Saturday, September 3 — 8:30 PM MT/7:30 PM PT
WHERE: Reser Stadium; Corvallis, OR
WEATHER: Sunny, high of 83 degrees
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes ESPN, by following this link.
SERIES RECORD: Oregon State leads Boise State, 5-4
RADIO: Bronco Radio Network
ODDS: Oregon State -2.5
SP+ PROJECTION: Boise State by 3.6
FEI PROJECTION: Boise State by 11
PARKER FLEMING PROJECTION: Boise State 58.97% win probability (35.68-32.53)
𝗖𝗢𝗨𝗡𝗧𝗗𝗢𝗪𝗡 𝗧𝗢 𝗞𝗜𝗖𝗞𝗢𝗙𝗙 – 𝗕𝗢𝗜𝗦𝗘 𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗧𝗘 𝗕𝗥𝗢𝗡𝗖𝗢𝗦
Andy Avalos returns for his 2nd year in Boise with a team ready to make a run in the MW!
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) August 30, 2022
While most of us enjoyed Week 0 to ease ourselves back into college football, we all have been waiting for this week to get here. Between injuries and inconsistencies, last year was rough to watch. It is a new season with a second-year staff and a healthy team; the expectations are incredibly high.
This season opens familiarly with the Broncos on the road, and Oregon State was 6-0 last season at Reser Stadium. Last year, they had victories over Utah and Arizona State, but they were not missing a third of their stadium capacity due to renovations. With the stands missing from the visiting side of the field, it is not likely the noise will be an issue for Boise State.
The Beavers defense returns nine starters from last season and hopes to improve on some rough performances. Offensively, Oregon State is missing their number one WR and RB from last year and will be looking to replace that production.
Of course, the Broncos will be trying to replace the production of Khalil Shakir, which a fully healthy George Holani and Hank Bachmeier will help. The defense, led by JL Skinner, Ezekiel Noa, and Scott Matlock, is returning 20 of their top 22 tacklers from last season. That experience should keep the pressure on the Beaver offense early.
Key No. 1: Contain Chase Nolan
Nolan is at the helm for his second season at Oregon State. He is very mobile and is a consistent enough passer, similar to Dillon Gabriel in last season’s opener, to create problems. If he is allowed to get his rhythm going, the Beavers will likely be able to spread out Boise State’s defense to get the run game going as well.
Key No. 2: Fulfill the Promise of an Offensive Line
We were told the offensive line made huge improvements during the past two seasons during camp. Yet the line play has been simply painful to watch. With the return of Kekaniokoa Holomalia-Gonzalez at center, the “Wild Snap Counter” will hopefully go away and he’ll provide stability in the interior of the line. Left tackle John Ojukwu and guards Garrett Curran and Ben Dooley add considerable experience along the line. And with the addition of Washington State transfer Cade Beresford, the Broncos look to have all the pieces in place for a much-improved offense.
Key No. 3: 20 of 22
As previously mentioned, the Bronco defense is returning 20 of their 22 top tacklers from last season. That is a good stat for the season, but it is enormous for Week 1, on the road, against potentially one of the best Oregon State teams of the last decade. Last season, the Beavers averaged 31.2 points per game while Boise State averaged 29.2, so without relying on an improved offense, the defense will have to play well not to allow this game to get into a shootout.
It seems odd not to mention Bachmeier or Holani in the keys to the game, but it had to be limited someplace. The signs lean towards a shootout, and with the spread under three points, there could be a lot of heart trouble on the horizon. But it would seem that most are overlooking just how good the Bronco defense is in comparison, and this time the promise of a better offensive line will be true.
Score: Boise State 35, Oregon State 21