The NFL is one of the most watched leagues globally. While the sport is exciting, it isn’t the easiest to bet on. Fortunately, as long as you are willing and motivated to learn new strategies, there’s hope. There are no magic tips on how to win your football wagers the same way there isn’t a singular solid strategy to win.
Whether you are a beginner or a seasoned veteran, having a solid system during the playoffs and regular season will yield more success. It also doesn’t matter whether you just place money-line bets or spread your wagers. Keep reading if you are interested in learning how to wager on NFL successfully.
1. Avoid overreacting
There are only 256 games in a regular NFL season, and the league is the most covered and discussed sport in the U.S. Because of the abundance of matches, there are numerous commentaries and takes each week. You’ll still be processing Week 3 games and start receiving Week 4 points.
Usually, football teams that dominate in a particular week aren’t as good in the next. That also applies to those that perform poorly in one week as they often improve in the next. When betting on NFL online while you play at Thunderbolt online casino, you must remember that every team in the league is uber-talented.
Therefore, there is no significant differentiation between top-performing and average teams. It’s not like college football, where there is a clear hierarchy. Consequently, you want to avoid overreacting and over-depending on statistics because things don’t stay the same for long.
Also, remember that basic statistics and final scores are often misleading. Don’t overreact after one good week and go too high on the next; stick to your strategy. Contrastly, don’t go too low after a bad week either. Remember that every better has good and bad days; you’ll be fortunate on some days and unlucky on others.
2. Steer clear of parlays
Most casual bettors find 12-1 parlay payouts very enticing. However, remember that when you assume all four games will be coin flips and use this tactic, you give the casino an 18.75% edge. With a regular coin flip, the house only has a 4.75% edge.
If you are throwing in a parlay just for the thrill, this tactic is perfectly alright. But if you take football betting more seriously, avoid it altogether. As a professional gambler, you can use parlays to leverage your edge in some cases.
However, parlays typically erode the bottom line if you are a beginner. Don’t be swayed by the numerous money line parlay tickets that hit the mark and get shared across social media platforms. NFL betting is already challenging, and you don’t need to give away more edge.
3. Don’t chase your losses
Bettors often get into trouble when they start chasing their losses, which is common in NFL betting. After having bad days, many gamblers fall for the trap of betting way over their heads to bounce back from or even compensate for an unlucky loss.
On the other end of the spectrum, those who hit it big one day might double up on the next big game. More often than not, this will land you in trouble. A good tip is to wager what you want before the day’s games start until you get a drift of NFL betting.
Consider flat betting until you have experience. With time, you’ll be able to logically tell when you have an edge and quantify it to inform your wager size.
4. Watch out for reverse line movements
If you are a seasoned NFL bettor, you’ve probably heard “sharp vs. squares” thrown around. Squares bet recreationally, while sharps are professional bettors. Bookmakers in most NFL games can identify actions that will pit sharps against squares.
These conflicted actions usually give rise to reverse line movements. The latter refers to a phenomenon where bookmakers move a particular line to favor the side with significantly lower bets because they see the side with fewer bets as the “sharp” side.
They prioritize sharp money over square money since they respect the sharps’ knowledgeability. Reputable sites typically track how many bets are placed on different NFL games. If you want to be more successful, look for matches where the line moves against the majority.
If you find one, consider wagering on the lesser better side. This action will put you in agreement with the sharps, which will prove profitable long-term.
5. Look for home-field advantage
Since most stadiums have a seating capacity of over 70,000 fans, the NFL league is significantly influenced by the home-field advantage more than any other professional sport. Some teams in the league are almost unbeatable when playing on home turfs, like The New England Patriots and The Seattle Seahawks.
While it doesn’t mean home teams automatically cover the spreads most of the time, oddsmakers base their lines on this home-field advantage. You’ll probably find some teams with a significantly greater home advantage if you research more.
So when placing your bet, make sure you take advantage of possible scheduling.
The bottom line
NFL betting can be exciting and doesn’t have to be tough. By considering these tips, you’ll improve your strategy and place more winning wagers. Another tip would be shopping around for the best lines before placing a bet.