Mountain West Basketball: Bracket Projections
Experts predict a higher than average number of MWC teams selected in March.
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An update on the conference’s NCAA Tournament bracket projections, looking good for four Mountain West teams.
At the onset of the month of February, NCAA Tournament resumes are looking slightly spotty, but stronger than ever at the same time? Yeah, go figure Mountain West fans. With Selection Sunday on March 13th inning closer and the First Four matchups of the NCAA Tournament on the 15th and 16th in Dayton.
We’re almost 30 days away one of the biggest sporting events of the year. So please, no late season blemishes to ruin a possible four-bid Mountain West. Sorry, no team in the conference is safe this season from a late season blunder and resulting stain on a resume.
Boise State sits atop the conference with a record of 17-4 (8-0) and a 14 game winning streak. With a couple of close calls last week against Wyoming (W 65-62) at home and Fresno State (W 68-63 OT) on the road. While Colorado State with a record of 16-3 (6-3) is tied for 3rd place with San Diego State 12-5 (4-2). Both teams experienced tough losses last week. With the Rams having their six game winning streak ruined at home by a 14 point loss to Wyoming. And San Diego State falling by 18 points on the road to Utah State.
The Cowboys 17-3 (6-1) are currently sitting in 2nd place in the Mountain West with a rematch against the league leaders Boise State at home tonight Thursday February 3rd. Hoping to make the conference race even more interesting.
The Aztecs and Cowboys appear to have fallen out of favor with AP Top-25 Poll voters at the moment. But Boise State (32 votes) and Colorado State (3) both received votes in the latest rankings.
At a glance, the Mountain West is enjoying a fruitful representation among the industry’s trusted rankings and evaluation tools. Since our last update on January 25th, there are five teams ranked in KenPom’s top-50 and six teams total in the top-100. While the conference now appears just as favorable in the NCAA’s latest NET rankings with five programs in the top-50 and six in the top-100 as well.
All of this has led to some very exciting representation among the industry’s most trusted bracketologists’ projections this past week.
Mountain West Conference KenPom Rankings
30-Boise State
34-San Diego State
35-Utah State
47-Fresno State
50-Colorado State
52-Wyoming
103-UNLV
129-Nevada
155-New Mexico
223-Air Force
301-San Jose State
Mountain West Conference NET Rankings
31-Boise State
34-Wyoming
39-Colorado State
43-Utah State
45-San Diego State
55-Fresno State
116-UNLV
138-Nevada
161-New Mexico
215-Air Force
296-San Jose State
The big dance bid glory days for the Mountain West will always be the 2012-2013 season. That year the conference had five teams go dancing, since then the highest total teams sent was three, two seasons later.
CBS Sports–Published Jan. 31st, 2021
Total Teams: 4
No. 7 Seed-Colorado State
No. 10 Seed-Boise State
No. 10 Seed-San Diego State
No. 12 Seed-Wyoming
CBS Bracketologist Jerry Palm has given Boise State the love deemed necessary by other outlets in his latest installment of CBS Bracketology. Although the oddest thing about Palm’s projections maybe Colorado State seeded higher than the Broncos as of Monday. But at the time of this publishing the Rams are riding a two game losing streak, so this will likely change.
ESPN–Published Feb. 1st, 2021
Total Teams: 4
No. 8 Seed- Boise State (Automatic Qualifier)
No. 10 Seed-Colorado State
No. 11 Seed-San Diego State (Last Four In)
No. 12 Seed-Wyoming (Last Four In)
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi appears to be following the trend of the industry regarding the Mountain West Conference at the moment. Four teams with punched tickets to the big dance and one fringe team. Since Lunardi’s previous edition last week, Wyoming is now a last four in selection rather than first four out. Joined by San Diego State who appears to be slipping a bit with a tough 18 point road loss to Utah State in Logan.
Heat Check CBB–Published Feb. 3rd, 2021
Total Teams: 4
No. 7 Seed-Boise State
No. 9 Seed-Colorado State
No. 10 Seed-San Diego State
No. 11 Seed-Wyoming
The guys over at Heat Check CBB continue to put out great content and tools like their Tournament Index Ratings. This week Lukas Harkins gives way to a unanimous four-big Mountain West. With a No. 7 seed for league leader Boise State at the moment and Wyoming securely in as a No. 11 seed.
Sports Illustrated–Published Feb. 2nd, 2021
Total Teams: 4
No. 8 Seed-Boise State
No. 10 Seed-Colorado State
No. 11 Seed-Wyoming (First Four Bye)
No. 12 Seed-San Diego State (Last Four In)
Kevin Sweeney’s second inclusion in our bracketology updates is favorable to the conference. A grand total of four teams have been projected to make the NCAA Tournament by the Sports Illustrated staff writer.
With a bit of worry surrounding the Aztecs, dropping them to a No. 12 seed and last four in designation after a tough week in an even tougher Mountain West.
Bracket Matrix Composite-Updated on January 31st
Total Teams: 4
No. 8 Seed-Colorado State (Avg. 8.09)
No. 9 Seed-Boise State (Avg. 9.16)
No. 12 Seed-San Diego State (Avg. 11.13)
No. 12 Seed-Wyoming (Avg. 11.26)
Bracket Matrix does a great job of giving out a composite seed from nearly eighty different voices and bracketologists around the country. Their current math pegs a four-bid Mountain West, this time including first place Boise State.
Though like other outlets they have Colorado State higher than the Broncos, with an average seed of 8.09 for the Rams resulting in a No. 8 seed.
A four-bid Mountain West Conference
A “record” breaking big dance for the Mountain West is coming to fruition before our eyes. So three teams, that is still the ceiling to meet and possibly beat this season.
But as teams continue to sky rocket up KenPom and NET rankings by beating each other week in and week out, three teams in looks like a given. Our hope now is to see four Mountain West teams go dancing.
Here’s to FOUR tickets punched, finger crossed.
Larry Muniz covers college basketball as a writer for Mountain West Wire and WAC Hoops Digest. Also as a co-host of the college basketball podcast “Hoops Talk W/Jay & Larry”. He is also a USWBA Member.
