Mountain West Football: 2021 Championship Tiebreakers, Explained
Five Mountain West teams are still in the hunt for a berth in the conference championship game. Here’s how each team can make it.
Contact/Follow @MattK_FS & @MWCwire
Plenty at stake in the final week.
The race to the Mountain West football championship game has had plenty of twists and turns, but as we head into the final week of the regular season there are still five teams — Air Force, Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Utah State — who have a chance to play for the title.
First, you can read through the entire list of potential tiebreakers right here and see the hosting procedures here. Because the race in the Mountain is a little more complex than the one in the West, there’s one passage that you’ll want to remember which will help to clarify a few of the possibilities:
If at any time during this analysis, any team(s) should gain an advantage over the other team(s) tied at that position, the
team(s) holding the advantage shall move forward in the tiebreaking process while the other team(s) are eliminated. If it
is reduced to a two‐team tie at any point, the process shall then revert to the beginning of the tie‐breaking procedures
(tie between two teams) and shall be applied (in order) until the two‐team tie is broken.
The other important thing to keep in mind is that computer composite rankings could play an important role when it comes to who gets to play the championship at home. It is prioritized, for instance, over records against common conference opponents, so while it isn’t clear exactly which computers the conference will rely upon to make the decision, one reasonable starting point is the six systems formerly used in the BCS rankings. For the sake of comparison, here is how each team stands as of each system’s most recent update:
Anderson and Hester (as of 11/22): Air Force: 36 | Boise State: 34 | Fresno State: 38 | San Diego State: 20 | Utah State: 44
Billingsley (after Week 12): Air Force: 34 | Boise State: 30 | Fresno State: 31 | San Diego State: 15 | Utah State: 50
Colley Matrix (after Week 12): Air Force: 33 | Boise State: 31 | Fresno State: 34 | San Diego State: 19 | Utah State: 38
Massey (as of 11/23): Air Force: 54 | Boise State: 41 | Fresno State: 52 | San Diego State: 45 | Utah State: 70
Sagarin (after Week 12): Air Force: 48 | Boise State: 21 | Fresno State: 52 | San Diego State: 51 | Utah State: 82
Wolfe (as of 11/21): Air Force: 31 | Boise State: 30 | Fresno State: 33 | San Diego State: 13 | Utah State: 41
Composite ranking: Air Force: 39.33 | Boise State: 31.17 | Fresno State: 40.00 | San Diego State: 27.17 | Utah State: 54.17
Now, here’s the breakdown of what each team’s paths to Championship Saturday looks like, as well as who would host the game in each scenario.
Here's the path for each team still alive in the race for the #MWFB Championship game ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/LkXdmOJpSB
— Mountain West (@MountainWest) November 22, 2021
West Division
San Diego State
- Win vs. Boise State = Aztecs finish with 7-1 conference record, would host championship game against Air Force or Utah State regardless of other results
- Loss vs. Boise State, Fresno State loss vs. San Jose State = Aztecs finish with 6-2 conference record, Bulldogs finish 5-3
- Would host Air Force in championship game by virtue of winning head-to-head tiebreaker (see hosting tiebreaker 1)
- Would travel to Boise State for championship game by virtue of losing head-to-head tiebreaker
Fresno State
- Win vs. San Jose State, San Diego State loss vs. Boise State = Bulldogs and Aztecs finish with 6-2 conference record, Fresno State would win division by virtue of winning head-to-head tiebreaker
- Would travel to Air Force for championship game by virtue of likely disadvantage in composite computer rankings (see hosting tiebreaker 2D; note: this scenario is currently too close to call, so this may not be determined until the Sunday after the regular season is finished and rankings are updated; see above for current composite ranking)
- Would travel to Boise State for championship game by virtue of losing head-to-head tiebreaker
Mountain Division
Air Force
- Win vs. UNLV, Boise State loss vs. San Diego State, Utah State loss vs. New Mexico = Falcons finish with 6-2 conference record, Broncos and Aggies finish 5-3
- Would travel to San Diego State for championship game by virtue of Aztecs 7-1 conference record
- Win vs. UNLV, Boise State win vs. San Diego State, Utah State loss vs. New Mexico = Falcons and Broncos finish with 6-2 conference record; Air Force would win two-team tiebreaker with head-to-head in hand
- Would travel to San Diego State for championship game by virtue of losing head-to-head tiebreaker
- Would host Fresno State for championship game by virtue of likely advantage in composite computer rankings (note: this scenario is currently too close to call, so this may not be determined until the Sunday after the regular season is finished and rankings are updated; see above for current composite ranking)
- Win vs. UNLV, Boise State win vs. San Diego State, Utah State win vs. New Mexico = Falcons, Broncos, and Aggies finish with 6-2 conference record and 1-1 record against each other; Utah State eliminated in three-team tiebreaker B with two division losses; Air Force would win two-team tiebreaker over Boise State by virtue of winning head-to-head
- Would travel to San Diego State for championship game by virtue of losing head-to-head tiebreaker
- Would host Fresno State for championship game by virtue of likely advantage in composite computer rankings (note: this scenario is currently too close to call, so this may not be determined until the Sunday after the regular season is finished and rankings are updated; see above for current composite ranking)
- Loss vs. UNLV, Boise State loss vs. San Diego State, Utah State loss vs. New Mexico = Falcons, Broncos, and Aggies finish with 5-3 conference record and 1-1 record against each other; Utah State eliminated in three-team tiebreaker B with three division losses; Air Force would win two-team tiebreaker over Boise State with head-to-head in hand
- Would travel to San Diego State for championship game by virtue of conference record (Aztecs 7-1)
Boise State
- Win vs. San Diego State, Air Force loss vs. UNLV, Utah State loss vs. New Mexico = Broncos finish with 6-2 conference record, Falcons and Aggies finish 5-3
- Would host San Diego State or Fresno State in championship game by virtue of winning head-to-head tiebreaker
- Win vs. San Diego State, Air Force loss vs. UNLV, Utah State win vs. New Mexico = Broncos and Aggies finish with 6-2 conference record, Boise State would win two-team tiebreaker with head-to-head in hand
- Would host San Diego State or Fresno State in championship game by virtue of winning head-to-head tiebreaker
Utah State
- Win vs. New Mexico, Air Force loss vs. UNLV, Boise State loss vs. San Diego State = Aggies finish with 6-2 conference record, Falcons and Broncos would finish 5-3
- Would travel to San Diego State for championship game by virtue of Aztecs 7-1 conference record
- Win vs. New Mexico, Air Force win vs. UNLV, Boise State loss vs. San Diego State = Aggies and Falcons finish with 6-2 conference record, Utah State would win two-team tiebreaker with head-to-head in hand
- Would travel to San Diego State for championship game by virtue of Aztecs 7-1 conference record
