San Diego State vs. Hawaii: Keys To An Aztec Win, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
San Diego State is #24 in the College Football Playoff Rankings
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Even with last week’s loss against the Bulldogs, Brady Hoke’s Aztecs are off to their best start in 46 seasons.
Honolulu, HI – SDSU finally gave up a win last week against Fresno State in Carson, after seven straight victories this season.
The Aztecs have responded from their last five conference losses with a double-digit victory in its next conference game. The total score in those five games has worked out to be San Diego State 138 : Opponents 50.
Furthermore, the Aztecs have not dropped consecutive league games in the same season since 2018, and remain 3-0 on the road this season.
WEEK 10: San Diego State Aztecs (7-1, 3-1 Mountain West) vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (4-5, 1-3 Mountain West)
WHEN: Saturday, November 6th — 10:30 PM EST / 7:30 PM PST
WHERE: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI (9,000)
TV: Fox Sports 1
STREAMING: Fans can sign up to receive a free one-week trial of Fubo, which includes FS1, by following this link.
RADIO: 101.5 KGB / XTRA 1360 / iHeart Radio App / SiriusXM ch. 383
SERIES RECORD: This will be the 36th matchup between these two schools. San Diego State leads Hawaii 22-11-2. SDSU is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
LAST WEEK: San Diego State lost to Fresno State 30-20; Hawaii lost to Utah State 51-31.
ODDS: San Diego State -7
OVER/UNDER: 45
Rainbow Warriors starting quarterback Chevan Cordeiro returned last week against Utah State after being out for three games following an undisclosed upper-body injury. He finished his return game hitting 23 of 39 for 296 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.
This season, Cordeiro has thrown for 1,706 yards and ten touchdowns. With 64 rushing yards, Cordeiro will become the third quarterback in university history to reach 1,000.
Hawaii has collectively rushed for more than 200 yards in four wins this season. Hawaii averages 157.7 rushing yards per game and features Dae Dae Hunter, who leads the team with 558 rushing yards, including scoring runs of 75 and 81 yards against Nevada. Hunter has missed the last two games due to injury.
Let’s take a look at San Diego State’s best strategy to collect the W.
Three Keys to an Aztecs Victory
1. Rush for 200 And Prevent ‘Bows From Reaching 200
San Diego State is 49-1 in its last 50 regular season games when rushing for 200 or more yards. This ought to be a clear-cut objective.
Under coach Graham, the Rainbow Warriors are 6-0 when rushing for at least 200 yards.
Last season in Carson, San Diego State maintained a 326- 66 rush advantage on the ground, while Aztecs defense recorded seven sacks, two fumble recoveries and one interception during their 34-10 victory.
Greg Bell led the Aztecs in rushing with 160 yards on 19 carries. Look for him, Chance Bell and Jordan Byrd attempt to post big numbers in this game, as they keep in mind last year’s success.
2. Hold ‘Bows To 17 Points Or Less
The Aztecs are 62-3 when holding their opponents to 17 points or less. The way to achieve this is to play elite defense, and in three-and-out offensive situations: look toward the nation’s #1 punter, the Leg of Steel Matt Araiza to flip the field.
The Aztecs can also limit Hawaii’s ability to score by taking care to hold the ball for at least 35 minutes during the game with clock management and consumption of valuable time with each offensive play once leading.
3. Score Non-Offensive Points
San Diego State is fourth in FBS football in non-offensive touchdowns scored since 2020, having managed eight in total.
Since 2020, the Aztecs co-lead FBS football with three punt returns for touchdown; they have registered two kickoff returns for touchdown, and have managed to pull off three pic-sixes.
Chevan Cordiero will be throwing the ball, so the Aztecs’ defense will have ample opportunities to intercept.
In addition to touchdowns, Matt Araiza has incredible long-range field goal capabilities having already made three in excess of 50 yards.
The Aztecs are 39-2 in the last 41 matches when owning a turnover advantage.
Prediction
Despite a demoralizing loss last week against the formidable (but beatable) Bulldogs, the Aztecs still received a nod and #24 ranking from the College Football Playoff committee. A great season start; this good news, and SDSU’s history of hammering the team that follows a winning opponent-hints it’s probable that the Aztecs will manhandle the Rainbow Warriors. The Aztecs will take an early lead, go into the half with a two-possession advantage and maintain command throughout this game.
Final Score: San Diego State 31, Hawaii 19
