Mountain West Football: Football Outsiders Reveals 2021 Preseason F/+ Rankings

Mountain West Football: Football Outsiders Reveals 2021 Preseason F/+ Rankings

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Mountain West Football: Football Outsiders Reveals 2021 Preseason F/+ Rankings

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98. Colorado State – projected for 5.2 mean wins, 42% chance at 6+ wins, 2% to win the conference

The Rams look like a team that’s built to win now, laden with senior talents on both sides of the ball, so perhaps its a little worrisome that F/+ isn’t blown away by what they return from 2020.

Some of that may have to do with small sample size because the Rams only got to play four games last season, but offensive coordinator Jon Budmayr will have some work to do to enable his unit to beat a projection that puts them at 100th overall.

114. Utah State – projected for 4.4 mean wins, 23% chance at 6+ wins, 1% to win the conference

A new coaching staff and a massive roster overhaul will probably make this projection look too low by December, but at least the Aggies are given a decent chance to bounce back toward bowl eligibility.

119. New Mexico – projected for 4.5 mean wins, 23% chance at 6+ wins

Is everyone sleeping on Danny Gonzales and the Lobos? New Mexico didn’t hit the transfer portal nearly as hard as Utah State, so it’s shocking to see that both team are given the same probability to crack .500.

Outside of a road date against Texas A&M, though, UNM’s non-conference schedule provides plenty of chances to score early wins against FCS Houston Baptist, UTEP (126th), and New Mexico State (129th), so stealing a win or two in conference play could be all it takes for the Lobos to end up as one of the Group of 5’s most pleasant surprises.

122. UNLV – projected for 2.7 mean wins, 2% chance at 6+ wins

Marcus Arroyo’s rebuild in the desert is well underway, but it may be best for Rebels fans to keep their expectations low as a young team will work through its growing pains against one of the Group of 5’s toughest overall schedules. UNLV is the only team in the Mountain West who will face two teams in the F/+ preseason top 25, Iowa State and Arizona State, so the progress this team makes in 2021 will probably be measured in other ways beyond the win column.

Next, we’ll look at the range of possibilities that F/+ foresees for each team in the Mountain West. What are everyone’s possible floors and ceilings?

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