Bracketology: Where Mountain West Teams Stand
One week away from Selection Sunday
Where do teams sit?
The Mountain West did themselves no favors when they made-up games. Boise State lost to Fresno State, a devastating loss, while Colorado State fell to Nevada.
Let’s look at where teams sit in everybody’s favorite conference:
Using BracketMatrix for these rankings.
San Diego State: 8 Seed
SDSU’s listed by some bracketologist’s to be anywhere from a 6 seed to a 10 seed, but a majority has them in the eight seed range, currently putting them as the second eight seed, only behind Oregon and ahead of Virginia Tech and LSU.
They certainly aren’t locked into the eight seed spot, if they advance deep into the MW tournament like many would suspect, while teams such as Wisconsin, Florida, Missouri and Oklahoma potentially fall early in their conference tournaments.
With the advanced metrics favoring SDSU, their seeding could surprise people come Selection Sunday.
Colorado State: 12 seed
After falling in Reno at the hands of Grant Sherfield’s wild three-pointer to drop the Rams lower on the bubble, It could be a sweaty week for Niko Medved.
MAMA THERE GOES THAT MAN @gsherfield5
— Nevada Basketball (@NevadaHoops) March 6, 2021
The Rams are in 92 of the 103 brackets displayed by the Matrix, they have work to do for safety. In the first game CSU plays during the MW Tournament, it’ll be between either Fresno State or UNM, both are MUST win games.
Assuming they win and USU wins their game, those two matchup in the semifinals, if CSU wins, they’ll be safe in the tournament.
If USU prevails, it’s not a lethal blow, but makes Selection Sunday rather sweaty.
There’s no question that Colorado State is able to win games in the NCAA Tournament, but they have to get their first. For now, Rams fans should feel comfortable, but get prepared not to be.
A major plus for CSU is, they haven’t lose a game outside of the first two quadrants. The selection committee values the quadrant system heavily.
Boise State Broncos: Last Four In/First four out
It’s tough saying definitively if Boise can get into the tournament, Bracket Matrix reitterates that, with most bracketologist’s placing Boise as a 12/13 seed being one of the final four at-large candidates. They were safely in prior to losing three consecutive rounding out the season, especially a Q4 loss at home facing Fresno.
Other teams in the same discussion is Xavier, Syracuse, Saint Louis, but none are all that close to Boise.
Here’s where things get dicey, stolen bids. We could see one here, Nevada being a possibility, but Nevada plays Boise in their first game. If the Broncos fall to the Pack, It could be the final blow.
The other bid-stealer could be Utah State. A really talented team, who won two consecutive conference tournaments, will it be a three-peat? Not ideal for the Broncos.
I see Boise’s path of feeling most comfortable, being to make the conference finals at the very least. Win a few games, get a few solid wins in the process, and give the committee something to ponder.
Other potential bid-stealers to watch are from the ACC, PAC-12 & SEC, none are super likely, but Duke, Arizona State & Kentucky, could all get hot to steal a bid, something that would be detrimental for the Broncos.