What’s the national consensus on SDSU’s status as a 1 seed?
A couple weeks ago I wrote a piece about if San Diego State could possibly get a one seed. With a couple more games out of the way, it’s time to look at it again.
For those that are unaware, bracketmatrix.com is a website that takes a bunch of bracket projections and puts them all in one place. So far it consists of 96 different experts and websites. These sources all have different methodologies and biases behind them.
For example, some show you what they think the bracket would look like if the season ended today. Others account for likely wins and losses and project what the bracket will look like on Selection Sunday. Neither method is wrong, they just focus on different things. With that, lets see what Bracket Matrix has to say about this years Aztecs team.
As I’m writing this, the Aztecs have an average seed of 1.54, which is fourth best in the nation. So they are projected to be the last 1 seed. The teams above them are Kansas (1.03), Baylor (1.04), and Gonzaga (1.26). Duke is close on the Aztecs heels, with an average seed of 1.76.
The lowest projection the Aztecs have received is as a 6 seed, with 2 separate sites projecting that.
Despite the Aztecs currently being projected as a 1 seed, as Duke continues to win games I would expect their average to rise, simply due to playing greater competition. That would drop SDSU down to a No. 2 seed.
That is also going on the assumption that San Diego State doesn’t lose a game between now and Selection Sunday. Some of these projections have already factored in a loss or two, so the Aztecs losing a game won’t change all of the predictions. With the quality of competition remaining though, a loss at just about any point would likely take the Aztecs out of the running for a 1 seed.
For Aztec fans, the goal should be to get into the West region, as a top 4 seed. If the Aztecs play in the west region they can play the first weekend in Sacramento, and the second weekend (if they make it that far) in Los Angeles. So a 2 seed in the West region would be better than a 1 seed in any other region. The best case scenario for Aztec fans is for Gonzaga to lose a game or two while SDSU remains undefeated, that way the Aztecs can stay in the West and Gonzaga can play in another region or drop down a seed.