Race To New Year’s Six Bowl Game: Boise State Still Needs Help
AAC is still in control.
Broncos fans want Navy, or a split AAC title
The final weekend of the regular season still has a lot on the line for what teams are in the mix for the Cotton Bowl bid from the Group of Five schools. To cut through all of the noise there are three teams that can earn this bad, and we can stretch it to a fourth but it is a big stretch.
The teams that have the best shot are Memphis, Cincinnati and Boise State. There is a scenario where Navy gets in and force some chaos but that is unlikely, however since chaos is fun that path will be mentioned.
In the latest College Football Playoff rankings, the order is Memphis at 18, Cincinnati at 19, Boise State at 20, and Navy unranked.
The Broncos have the easiest path to go undefeated over its final two games as they take on Colorado State and then Hawaii in the Mountain West title game. Boise State is heavily favored in both.
The Tigers and Bearcats are basically tied at the hip. These two teams play at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC this Friday and it could be a rematch the week later in the American title game.
If Memphis wins it will 100 percent be a rematch but if Memphis loses then they could be on the outside looking in. For it to not be a Bearcats vs. Tigers title game, it will require Navy to beat Houston, because in this scenario the Midshipman would be in the AAC title game with a better record.
If Navy loses to Houston it will be a Memphis vs. Cincinnati American title game. For the Middies to get in they need to win and Memphis lose.
For Boise State’s purposes and a potential Cotton Bowl berth, they would want Memphis and Cincinnati to split the final two games and give the American champ two losses. The College Football Playoff committee has never ranked a two-loss Group of Five champion over a one-loss ever, so those are odds Boise State should like.
An even better scenario would be for Navy to get into the championship game and beat Cincinnati. With Navy not ranked at the moment, they very likely would not move up high enough to surpass a Boise State team that will be around the late teens in the playoff rankings.
Also, if Navy wins the American the rankings just might be held since they play Army the week after the championship games. The committee noted in past years they would hold off the rankings but that was when Navy was ranked an in the conversation, them being not ranked probably means the committee would go with Boise State due to the difference in rankings.