Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Three Keys To An Aztecs Win
The Bulldogs and Aztecs battle for the Old Oil Can yet again. Here’s how San Diego State can manage the win.
The Aztecs and Bulldogs have been facing off for 96 years, and this rivalry is fierce. Both teams will find an extra gear tonight.
WEEK 12: Fresno State (4-5, 2-3 MW) vs SDSU (7-2, 4-2 MW)
WHEN: Friday, November 15 — 6:30 PM PST / 9:30 PM EST
WHERE: SDCCU Stadium; San Diego, California (54,000)
RADIO: The Fresno State broadcast can be found on 940 AM, while the SDSU broadcast can be found on 101.5 FM (KGB) and XTRA 1360 AM.
SERIES RECORD: San Diego State leads the series 29-25-4. In the last meeting on November 17, 2018, the Bulldogs defeated the Aztecs, 23-14, in Fresno.
LAST WEEK: Fresno State lost to Utah State at home, 37-35, while San Diego State lost at home to Nevada, 17-13.
ODDS : SDSU -2.5
SP+ PROJECTION: San Diego State by 2.9 (57% win probability)
FEI PROJECTION: San Diego State by 1.3
The Fresno State Bulldogs have spent 2019 losing more games than they’ve won both in conference and in total. Their chance to defend the Mountain West Championship is slim. Now they face the already bowl-eligible Aztecs.
The Old Oil Can isn’t the only thing on the line Friday. Bowl eligibility may be on the line as well, and this is a reversal of fortune for the 2018 champion Bulldogs. Rocky Long’s Aztecs have thrived on strong defense and special teams, holding opponents to the fewest points per drive since 2015 while Jeff Tedford’s offense, on that same basis, is scoring more points than any Bulldogs team since 2013.
Here’s how the Aztecs can score a win and take back the Old Oil Can.
Three Keys to an Aztecs Victory
Ryan Agnew isn’t always on; but, when he’s on he’s on. Fresno State believes that if they put the game in Agnew’s hands he’ll not succeed. This a pretty risky sentiment, and really, more often than not- Agnew pulls through. More important, he and the Aztecs are total ball hogs.
2. Stop the run
Fresno State will want to run the ball, and against the elite Aztecs defense this will be very hard. If defense keeps the pressure on, this will be another remarkably low rush production performance for the Bulldogs.
3. Control the Clock
Just as San Diego State defense is devastating against the run, the offense controls the clock by slowing things down to a dreadful pace, and the formula keeps on working.
SDSU will have the ball for 35 minutes, Fresno State won’t generate the kind of pressure to disrupt this, and it’ll be yet another slow motion win for a team that doesn’t make major errors and is not afraid to play within its abilities.
Fresno State depends on the run to win. Against the Aztecs this will be an exercise in futility. Still, they’ll be another team to make 17 points.
At the end of the night as unappetizing as it sounds: the Aztecs will be drinking buttermilk from the old oil can.
San Diego State 24, San Diego State 17