San Diego State vs. Nevada: Three Keys to an Aztec Victory
The Aztecs come home, refresh, and ready for a revenge spot against the Wolf Pack.
San Diego State vs. Nevada: How to Watch, Keys to Victory, and Prediction
WEEK 11: San Diego State Aztecs (7-1, 4-1 MW) vs. Nevada Wolf Pack (5-4, 2-3 MW)
WHEN: Saturday, November 9 — 7:30 PM PT/8:30 PM MT
WHERE: SDCCU Stadium; San Diego, California (54,000)
RADIO: 101.5 KGB / XTRA 1360 / Fox Sports Inland Empire (IE) 1350
SERIES RECORD: San Diego State leads 7-4. In the previous meeting on October 27, 2018, the Aztecs lost to the Wolf Pack, 28-24, in Reno.
LAST WEEK: San Diego State was on a bye week, Nevada beat New Mexico 21-10.
ODDS (via OddsShark): San Diego State -17.5
San Diego State essentially has three parts to its 2019 season – a beginning, middle, and end. Bookmarked by a rare opportunity of two bye weeks, and here we are in November closing in on the ending.
When the Aztecs last faced the Wolf Pack, the Aztecs fell into a subpar season losing 5 of the last 6 including the blow out loss to Ohio in the Frisco Bowl.
The Wolf Pack pulled off a rare home upset against Purdue 34-33 in which became a moment for the Mountain West where they upset power 5 schools in the non-conference. That moment put the Wolf Pack in
Rocky Long’s got bulletin board material for this matchup and the roster up for that challenge. San Diego State is the better team going into this game, and after going back-to-back conference road games.
The Aztecs are ready to play their homecoming game. The signs are trending in the Aztecs’ direction, so let’s break down how the Aztecs win on Saturday night.
Keys to an Aztec Victory
San Diego State is 30-1 when owning the turnover margin. San Diego State’s defense has been the highlight of this season and the primary reason why these Aztecs ranked at 24. Kyahva Tezino is playing out of his mind, leading the team in tackles and tying for first in forced fumbles with Darren Hall. In the secondary, Luq Barcoo is gaining national attention for his play and his interception count. The Aztecs are ball hawks and trained to get off the field. For the game, Tezino has to continue to lead the rest of the team in this rigid mentality.
Secure the ball
During the 2018 edition of this matchup, the Aztecs fumbled the ball twice and lost 24-28. Look with Juwan Washington leading the backs and as long as Ryan Agnew plays mistake-free it’s a good day. Agnew is a playmaker and as long as he doesn’t take terrible sacks, and throw ill-advised throws. Daniel Brown on the Nevada side of the ball is their ballhawk and could exploit Agnew’s poor decisions.
Contain Toa Toua
Given the inconsistent quarterback play for the season, the Nevada offense runs through the running back. Last year Toua, put up a meek 7 rush yards, and 5 receptions for 76 yards and 1 touchdown. This 2019 season he’s at 562 yards with 5 touchdowns. They have leaned on him to catch more passes out of the backfield catching 23 passes for 151 yards. A bulk of that yardage came from their opening week upset of Purdue.
The Aztecs defense will cruise and carry this team to another victory. San Diego State keeps the Nevada offense under 300 total yards and comes away with a scoop-and-score. Ryan Agnew manages this game and puts up an easy 150 yards with 1 touchdown and Juwan Washington comes away with a 100-yard game.
San Diego State 20, Nevada 10