Key #3:  Can Impact Players Return

The Broncos handled the Lobos with ease last week, even without a few of their impact players on offense. It’s been no secret that Boise State has been riddled with injuries on defense, but they also have taken some hits on offense, especially at the receiver spot.

Against the Lobos, they were without Octavius Evans, John Hightower, and Khalil Shakir. The Broncos demonstrated last week just how deep their receiving core is after Sean Modster’s huge three touchdown game, but they would welcome getting back any one of three dynamic playmakers listed above. At New Mexico, it did feel as though Boise State was missing that receiver to get involved in the run game or take the top off of the defense.

Coach Harsin does not provide specifics on injuries that are not season ending, so we will have to wait until just before kickoff to see who’s active for the Broncos. Octavius Evans was witnessed as practicing fairly unimpeded this week. His return would be huge, as he has not been at 100% all season, despite being labeled as the most talented receiver on the Boise State roster. If the Broncos can get one or all of their impact players back for the game on Saturday, it will go a long ways towards a victory on the Blue.  

Prediction

ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Broncos a 59.2% chance to beat the Aggies on Saturday night. Since 1996, the Broncos lead the overall series 14-3 and the Aggies have not won at Albertsons Stadium since 1996. On a cold Saturday night in 2014, also after Thanksgiving, the Broncos and the Aggies met in Albertsons Stadium to decide the Mountain Division. Boise State won that contest 50-19.

I don’t see this contest being nearly as big of a blowout, but I do think the Broncos take advantage of some recently built momentum and come away with the victory at home. Boise State plays well on the ground and gets a few timely turnovers on defense.

Boise State 34 USU 17