West Division Scenarios
There are three teams in the mix for the Western crown: San Diego State, Nevada and Fresno State. The Wolf Pack are in the mix due to UNLV upsetting the Aztecs last week to give them two league losses which match Nevada who also beat San Diego State.
Fresno State beats San Diego State. Bulldogs win the West.
This is the most straightforward scenario because a Bulldogs win gives them the West Division title. It would not make a difference if San Jose State were to upset the Bulldogs since a potential two-loss Nevada team that wins out would lose out since head-to-head would favor Fresno State
Three-way tie. Fresno State wins the West.
If Fresno State, Nevada, and San Diego State end in a tie then tiebreaking scenarios come into play. This would have the Aztecs winning out which would include wins over Fresno State and Hawaii; Fresno State would lose to the Aztecs but beat San Jose State; Nevada wins out.
This would give all three teams a 6-2 league record and also have a 1-1 record against each team. The next tiebreaker is winning percentage in divisional games. The Aztecs would be out first as they are 3-2 in West Division play as the Bulldogs and Wolf Pack are 4-1. With the tiebreaker going back to a head-to-head matchup this would favor Fresno State and they would win the division since they beat Nevada.
San Diego State wins out, Nevada losses a game, Fresno State beats San Jose State
The Aztecs first need to beat the Bulldogs, then have the Bulldogs beat San Jose State and the Wolf Pack drop either of its final two games.
How Nevada can win the West, yes it is possible.
This would first require the Wolf Pack to win against San Jose State and UNLV; both road games. Plus, it would take some help from both San Diego State and Fresno State.
Nevada would need Fresno State to lose to the Aztecs and also the Spartans; that would give the Bulldogs three losses to the Wolf Pack two.
San Diego State would need to top Fresno State and as long as the Aztecs and Wolf Pack finish with two losses Nevada gets the title since they own the head-to-head victory. That would make the final game against Hawaii not matter because if Nevada and San Diego State have the same league record the Wolf Pack claim the title.