Mountain West Football: Week 0 Lines And Predictions
Hawaii is an underdog at Colorado State, Wyoming is a road favorite against New Mexico State. How do you pick against the spread?
College football season is back, and so is the season for making good gambling choices.
Mountain West football season begins tomorrow! It’s going to be a good day, but rest assured it can be better if you know how to make a buck on the games we all enjoy. Winning makes everything better, right?
So I’ll be giving you my thought process on games throughout the year, that you might take them into consideration if you want to try your hand at a local sports book. My credentials come down to finishing in the top ten of the Solid Verbal’s pick ’em competition two in years in a row, among about 500 entrants in both seasons. That’s pretty much it, so don’t bet your houses on these picks (unless you do and you end up winning a second house, then please shower me with praise and recognition for my wisdom).
Without further ado, here are my picks. All lines are from Vegas Insider.
Hawaii at Colorado State (-17)
The first conference tilt of 2018 is a very interesting one, featuring two revamped offenses. Interestingly, both teams underperformed against the spread last fall, with UH finishing 3-8-1 and CSU going 4-9, but the Rams were also uncharacteristically poor at home as favorites, too, finishing under .500 for the first time since 2011.
Both teams should be able to move the ball, but Hawaii’s new run-and-shoot seems more likely to fall victim to losing the turnover margin and the field position battle, even if they can create the occasional big play. And Colorado State’s proven running game could keep the Warriors off the field. I’d say take Hawaii and the points, even if the Rams are likely to end up as comfortable winners.
UPDATE: Because the line has shifted significantly in the last 24 hours or so, from 14.5 to 17, I’m going to go ahead and make this my first No Doubt Lock of the Week. These points are a gift, make no mistake.
Wyoming (-4) at New Mexico State
This line, and the over/under with it, seems to anticipate a defensive fistfight between the Aggies and the Cowboys. It also puts the Cowboys in a rare position as road favorite, where they are 1-4 in Craig Bohl’s four years at the helm.
Betting on the Aggies to cover at home is just about as dicey on the surface, too, as they are 9-10-2 since 2013. I expect the Cowboys to claw their way to a close victory, but I think that makes taking NMSU and the points the smart move.