ESPN FPI Predicts Boise State As Mountain West Champs
Taking a look at advanced stats to predict next year
What does the ESPN FPI say about the Mountain West?
The offseason for college football can have the smallest piece of news blow up and the latest in that is ESPN releasing an updated Football Power Index. Of course, we and every other spot picked up to write about as an excuse to talk non-NFL Draft football this time of the year.
For those wondering about but what the FPI is, here is the method per ESPN:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
It should be little to no shock that Boise State is at the top of this list and a lot has to do with the amount of returning starters the team has back starting quarterback Brett Rypien, potential all-Mountain West first-team running back Alexander Mattison and a slew of returning starters.
What is surprising is how the Broncos are a runaway favorite to win the conference over San Diego State and Fresno State, and even a bigger favorite for the Mountain Division title with nearly a 50 percent edge over projected second-place finisher Utah State.
A few things go the Broncos way and that is they host its biggest competition at home in Fresno State, San Diego State and also Utah State. Going to Nevada will be interesting, but the home schedule favors the Broncos a lot.
The Aztecs and maybe even more specifically Fresno State are underrated. San Diego State does lose Rashaad Penny, a big loss, but some of its defense was young and it returns a senior quarterback in Christian Chapman and also all five starters along the offensive line.
As for Fresno State, they return pretty much everyone on both sides of the ball and should have, at worst, a top-three defense in the league, if not the best. Numbers shouldn’t include past failures or success, but the Bulldogs seem to be the most underrated team.