Chaotic Weekend Leaves Nevada With Favorable Final Four Odds
The top four seeds have all been sent home in the South region, opening the door for the surging Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada will play No. 11 Loyola Chicago in Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup
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Commonly referred to as the toughest region in this year’s bracket, the South region is down to four teams.
None of the four remaining teams are even top four seeds.
After Nevada’s thrilling 22-point comeback win over Cincinnati on Sunday, the Wolf Pack ensured that the South regional in Atlanta will be the first NCAA Tournament regional ever without a top four seed. The combined seed sum of the remaining four teams is 32, which is the second-highest ever to only the 2011 Midwest and 1986 East, which are tied atop at 34.
Here’s how the top four seeds have fallen:
- No. 1 Virginia lost to No. 16 UMBC in round of 64 (74-54)
- No. 2 Cincinnati lost to No. 7 Nevada in round of 32 (75-73)
- No. 3 Tennessee lost to No. 11 Loyola Chicago in round of 32 (63-62)
- No. 4 Arizona lost to No. 13 Buffalo in round of 64 (89-68)
It’s just been one of those years.
With the top four seeds bounced, the door is wide open for Nevada to not only advance to the Elite Eight, but even the Final Four. The Wolf Pack will take on No. 11 seed Loyola Chicago Thursday evening. According to Oddsshark, Nevada is currently a 2.0-point favorite against the Ramblers in the South subregional game in Atlanta.
Prior to the tournament, FiveThirtyEight gave Nevada a 40% likelihood of beating Texas in the round of 64, a 7% likelihood of advancing to the Sweet 16, a 3% likelihood of advancing to the Elite Eight, and a 0.5% likelihood of advancing to the Final Four.
Thanks to Nevada’s pair of double-digit comebacks and the handful of upsets on the other side of the region, the Wolf Pack’s Final Four hopes have skyrocketed. Nevada now has a 51% likelihood of advancing to the Elite Eight (previously 3%) and a 12% likelihood of advancing to the Final Four (previously 0.5%). If Nevada beats No. 11 seed Loyola Chicago, it will either face No. 5 seed Kentucky or No. 9 seed Kansas State with a Final Four berth in the balance.
Thursday’s game against Loyola Chicago will tip off at 7:07pm ET and can be seen on CBS or the March Madness app.