2018 Mountain West Tournament Projections
What do the numbers say about the Mountain West tournament.
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Who will the win the Mountain West tournament?
The Mountain West tournament begins play on Wednesday with the opening round games for the bottom six seeds and before we get to human previews we will use advanced numbers, metrics and odds on who can win the Mountain West tournament in Las Vegas.
TeamRankings.com uses a predictive formula with simulation to predict the champion. With UNLV playing home at the Thomas & Mack is considered with these odds which is why the Rebels are much higher than its eighth seed.
New Mexico is getting the least amount of respect as they are the third seed, are on a five-game winning streak but are given the sixth-best odds to win the whole thing. However, they have the fourth best odds to make it to the championship game.
UNLV seems higher even when including their home-court edge as they are given a reasonable 31 percent chance to defeat Nevada if the two meet in the second round.
The Aztecs, like the Lobos, are on a hot streak right winning its prior six games but San Diego State is given much better odds as the five seed and they still have to play Fresno State during Thursday’s quarterfinal game.
| Seed | Team | Quarter | Semi | Champ | Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nevada | 100.00% | 68.28% | 44.22% | 30.93% |
| 2 | Boise State | 100.00% | 81.02% | 57.56% | 26.56% |
| 5 | San Diego State | 100.00% | 59.00% | 25.65% | 15.37% |
| 8 | UNLV | 88.76% | 31.05% | 15.64% | 8.87% |
| 4 | Fresno State | 100.00% | 41.00% | 14.41% | 7.45% |
| 3 | New Mexico | 100.00% | 57.08% | 20.61% | 5.68% |
| 6 | Wyoming | 86.51% | 41.17% | 14.04% | 3.61% |
| 7 | Utah State | 68.81% | 15.56% | 6.74% | 1.42% |
| 10 | Colorado State | 31.19% | 3.42% | 0.91% | 0.09% |
| 9 | Air Force | 11.24% | 0.67% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 11 | San Jose State | 13.49% | 1.75% | 0.15% | 0.01% |
Ken Pom placed his conference predictions over on his Twitter account and it is similar to TeamRankings.com with the top three teams in Nevada, Boise State, and San Diego State. UNLV is not given as much credit and does get a bump by given the sixth-best odds even with it being an eight-seed.
The Wolf Pack are given much better odds at 37 percent to win the whole thing and the third-seeded Lobos are only given the fifth-best chances to win the whole thing. Perhaps late-season success is not a factor for winning the tournament.
ESPN’s BPI does not go through the whole tournament but they do go through the games scheduled at the moment.
These opening round games odds seem about right.
Here is the one quarterfinal game which is already set up between San Diego State and Fresno State.
